Indian Central Government to Officially Block Prediction Market Platform Kalshi
The Indian central government will officially block the prediction market platform Kalshi, with an execution order expected as early as this Friday.
Previously, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology had issued a blocking order against Polymarket. Both platforms were supposed to stop services for Indian users weeks ago but still allowed registration and trading.
Government officials confirmed that preparations are underway for a formal ban on Kalshi.
Source: Public Information
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The Indian government has previously taken action against overseas crypto and prediction platforms. The blocking of Kalshi continues the regulatory path established with Polymarket, which was earlier enforced due to capital outflow, gambling attributes, and data sovereignty issues.
In terms of capital flow, Indian regulators aim to concentrate user traffic and trading activities on locally regulated platforms through blocking orders, directing resources towards fintech companies holding local licenses. The motivation is to prevent foreign exchange loss, ensure tax revenue, and reduce the impact of overseas platforms on domestic financial order, while also addressing market speculation risks during sensitive periods such as elections.
Similar to the restrictions imposed on several international crypto exchanges in 2024-2025, and other emerging markets blocking prediction markets, India's digital asset regulation is transitioning from a lenient gray area to a strict cleanup phase. Overseas high-liquidity platforms are facing pressure to localize and comply with regulations.
Essentially, this represents a regulatory change: blocking Kalshi shifts pricing power from the globally open prediction market to locally controlled platforms. The mechanism is that overseas platforms lack local licenses and compliant entities, making them vulnerable to rapid regulatory access cuts, forcing prediction market activities towards compliant channels or underground, resulting in stronger capital controls and local governance structures.
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The more popular global platforms become, the more emerging market regulations will keep them out.
Liquidity without local licenses is only temporary.
The faster the capital outflow, the harsher the blocking orders, and compliance is the long-term ticket.