Strive CEO Matt Cole: Bitcoin Had No Overvaluation Before Dollar Debt Crisis
Matt Cole told Bloomberg's crypto channel that there was probably no overvaluation of Bitcoin before the U.S. debt crisis truly erupted; relative to the dollar, Bitcoin could effectively trend towards infinity. He added that this does not mean one coin can buy all of Manhattan. The baseline scenario is about a 50% annualized compound growth by 2030, corresponding to approximately $400,000 to $500,000.
Strive is a Bitcoin treasury company that buys coins through issuing stocks and bonds. Cole stated that if there were no support from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries could exceed 10%; the Treasury Secretary's suppression of long-term rates merely delays the reckoning, as neither party is willing to cut spending. The release valve upon collapse will be the dollar, not Bitcoin. The company's financing cost is about 13%, and Bitcoin needs to rise above this level to increase the per-share coin amount for shareholders; he claims that by 2026, Strive's returns will exceed spot Bitcoin by over 100%, at which point Bitcoin will be roughly flat. The preferred stock SATA pays a daily dividend at an annualized rate of about 13%.
Infinity is a narrative about exchange rates, not a purchasing power list. Once debt is sufficiently high relative to GDP, policy choices are to raise taxes and cut spending, endure higher real interest rates, or allow currency depreciation. Cole bets on the third option and writes that the treasury company continuously raises the leverage of each Bitcoin share before the depreciation is complete. The total market value of digital assets has returned to about $3 trillion since January; Bitcoin was around $84,000 to $86,000 during the interview, over a third lower than its previous high.
The treasury model transforms coins from balance sheet assets into an equity story. If the premium on new shares exceeds the appreciation of holdings, shareholders are diluted; a discount fails to prevent dilution. A 13% coupon requires Bitcoin to outperform financing costs in the long term, or else interest will erode the holdings. Bloomberg's lens welds macro doomsday to a NASDAQ target, facilitating the next round of financing.
In market mechanisms, what is sold is a call option against the dollar, and what is bought is equity and preferred shares of the treasury company. Demand comes from funds wanting daily returns without the hassle of cold storage, while supply comes from continuously issued stocks and SATA. Beneficiaries are management who can issue more shares at a premium to buy coins, while those under pressure are older shareholders diluted at a discount and the Treasury that must roll over national debt. Funds flow from capital markets into Bitcoin spot, then return to stock prices through the story of per-share coin amounts.
Source: Public Information
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Cole frames the MicroStrategy model as fiscal mathematics: if Washington does not fix the debt, the dollar will crack first, and Bitcoin's price against the dollar has no ceiling. A 50% compound growth to 2030 extrapolates the slope of the last bull market, layered with the accelerator of a national debt crisis this time. The true product of the treasury company is not the coins, but the license to repeatedly exchange equity for coins in capital markets.
The capital path is the interest on preferred shares plus the premium on common stock. The 13% daily dividend pulls money market clients into Bitcoin exposure without needing to open their wallets. Cash reserves are written to last until the end of 2027 without selling coins, to prove they won't be forced to liquidate in the next downturn. Strategy is named as a survivor among peers, with industry reshuffling explained as a differentiation in balance sheet quality rather than a death of the model.
Similar structures can be seen in gold miners discussing market value based on reserves, and in the primary market selling hedge funds with "fiat currency collapse" narratives. The industry is at a stage where Bitcoin is transitioning from a trading commodity to a treasury asset for companies. Those who can frame the debt crisis as an infinite numerator and financing costs as a finite denominator will continue to issue more shares.
Structural judgments belong to the transfer of pricing power. Bitcoin's pricing anchor shifts from halving cycles to unsustainable sovereign debt. The mechanism is: when the largest debtor chooses depreciation over tightening, the dollar price of fixed supply assets loses its upper limit; the treasury company makes this judgment into tradable equity.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- Infinity against the dollar does not equal infinity against Manhattan.
- The treasury company sells per-share coin amounts, not the coins themselves.
- If debt is not fixed, the release valve will be written as currency rather than assets.