Solana Co-founder Yakovenko: Tech Giants May Experience 15-Year Recovery Cycle
Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana Labs, pointed out that Microsoft underwent about a 15-year valuation recovery period after the dot-com bubble burst before returning to its previous highs, subsequently entering a phase of sustained doubling growth. He emphasized that the recovery cycle for large tech assets may far exceed market expectations.
This historical case is widely cited in English investment research: Microsoft reached its peak around 2000 but was long constrained by stagnation in PC growth and structural issues until it completed its transformation to cloud computing (Azure) and subscription models, allowing it to re-enter a growth trajectory. A similar "long period of sideways movement + structural restructuring" has also been observed in the phased adjustments of companies like Amazon and Meta.
Currently, in the crypto and tech markets, several English investors and research institutions are revisiting the concepts of "long-term recovery cycles" and "narrative shifts," believing that asset price recovery often relies on fundamental changes in business models and infrastructure rather than merely the return of liquidity.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The key to this history is not the "15 years" but that "recovery is predicated on structural reconstruction." Microsoft did not simply wait for the market to warm up and recover naturally; it completed a revaluation of its valuation system by shifting its business model from one-time licensing to subscription, and from local software to cloud services. Price recovery is the result, not the process itself.
Mapping this logic to crypto or new tech assets means that relying solely on liquidity cycles cannot bring about sustained rebounds. If the underlying demand, cash flow structure, or user value does not undergo a qualitative change, prices may rebound but will struggle to maintain. This contrasts with the previous growth model that relied on token incentives and narrative-driven growth.
On a deeper level, this reflects the "long-cycle mismatch" in the tech industry: technological breakthroughs often precede the maturity of business models, and capital markets will price future expectations in advance. Once these expectations fall short, a long digestion period ensues. Microsoft's case illustrates that the real turning point comes from the combination of "new infrastructure + new profit models," rather than time itself.
For the current market, such comparisons imply a judgment: the industry is still in the "searching for the right business form" stage, rather than having completed a validated maturity phase. In this stage, time will not automatically repair valuations; only structural changes will.