Big Short Michael Burry Questions SpaceX and Anthropic's Trillion-Dollar Valuations
Famous investor Michael Burry recently expressed skepticism about the high valuations of SpaceX and Anthropic on Substack, believing that neither company has the long-term value support to justify valuations over $1 trillion.
Regarding SpaceX, he pointed out that any further increase is driven by market speculation and technical factors, and the IPO prospectus does not show a reasonable basis for a $1-2 trillion valuation; SpaceX's revenue in 2025 is projected at $18.7 billion, with a net loss of $4.9 billion. On Anthropic, Burry believes that the high costs of developing large models and excessive reliance on computational power may lead to overcapacity in the future, making the likelihood of a long-term value close to $1 trillion low.
Market Mechanism: After Burry's bearish comments, market participants are paying attention to his short-selling signals, potentially leading to capital flowing out of overvalued AI and space technology sectors, putting pressure on the valuations of SpaceX and Anthropic during their IPO and financing processes, benefiting traditional value investors who amplify the questioning voices.
Supplementary Data: Anthropic recently completed financing, reaching a valuation of $965 billion; Burry joked that before paying $1 trillion, one must "first count to a trillion, and then consider it 240,000 years later."
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Michael Burry profited from shorting U.S. real estate during the 2008 crisis and has repeatedly questioned the tech bubble of high valuations, including early criticisms of Tesla and several tech stocks. His recent comments on SpaceX and Anthropic continue his consistent value investing framework, emphasizing fundamentals over narrative-driven valuations.
In terms of capital flow, Burry's public expression of views via Substack indirectly influences institutional and retail fund allocations, aiming to warn the market against excessive capital concentration in AI and space sectors, while paving the way for his potential shorting or underweight strategies. Historically, similar statements from him have often triggered short-term valuation corrections.
Similar to the market adjustments following Burry's previous criticisms of Tesla's high valuation, SpaceX and Anthropic are currently in the early stages of transitioning from high financing enthusiasm to profitability verification, facing a critical test from "growth stories" to "sustainable cash flows."
Structural Judgment: This fundamentally represents a transfer of pricing power. High valuations rely on market narratives and capital frenzy, while Burry's skepticism amplifies the fundamental risks (losses, costs, overcapacity), pushing the pricing power from story-driven growth investors to value investors focused on long-term free cash flows. The mechanism lies in public questioning accelerating the market's recognition of overbuilding and the commodification of computational power.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Narratives can drive up valuations, but fundamentals ultimately determine survival.
The boom in computational power often breeds the next round of overcapacity.
Those who dare to say "not worth a trillion" in a bubble are the true risk price setters.