a16z Dissects the Myth of 'AI Job Apocalypse': New Technologies Always Create New Jobs
a16z partner David George stated that the claim of "AI causing permanent mass unemployment" is a version of the "lump of labor fallacy". Historically, there has never been a situation where the total number of jobs was completely replaced by new technology.
Since 1940, most of the new jobs in the U.S. did not exist at that time. Agricultural mechanization reduced the proportion of farmers from 1/3 to 2%, while electrification created entirely new industries and consumer goods, without causing permanent unemployment; instead, it expanded the economy.
AI will replace some tasks and compress certain positions, but more importantly, it acts as a productivity multiplier. The demand for positions such as software engineers and product managers is rising due to AI enhancement, and a large number of new jobs that are currently unimaginable will emerge in the future.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
David George continues a16z's long-standing position against the theory of technological unemployment. Keynes previously predicted that automation would lead to a 15-hour work week, but in reality, humans continuously develop new demands. Historical events such as the Industrial Revolution, electrification, and the computer age have proven that productivity improvements ultimately expand rather than shrink the job market.
In terms of capital pathways, institutions like a16z are focusing investments on AI infrastructure and application layers, driving productivity leaps while also creating new jobs in AI engineering, agent training, data curation, etc., forming a positive cycle of "technology disrupting old jobs → creating high-value new jobs → expanding the overall economy."
Similar to how labor shifted from agriculture to manufacturing and services after agricultural mechanization, and how the internet era gave rise to developers, content creators, and platform economies, AI is currently in the early stages of transitioning from "task replacement" to "economic boundary expansion". Goldman Sachs data shows that the enhancement effects of AI have significantly surpassed the replacement effects.
Essentially, this is a form of technological substitution: AI reduces cognitive costs, liberating human labor from repetitive tasks to focus on higher-level creation and exploration, transforming capital from a fixed labor quantity mindset to a dynamic demand expansion mechanism. Historically, every general technological revolution has ultimately enlarged the economic pie rather than resulting in a zero-sum game.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
The total amount of labor has never been a fixed pie, but rather a cake that is continuously enlarged by new technologies. Every time there is a "fear of unemployment", it ultimately becomes a prelude to the birth of new professions. The more AI can think for humans, the more humans can explore previously unimaginable territories.