Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio Warns the U.S. is Entering Years of Turmoil
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated that the U.S. is about to face years of turmoil driven by massive fiscal deficits, an expanding wealth gap, political division, and AI disruption.
He pointed out that these factors are compounding, leading to significant instability in the economy, politics, and social order.
Dalio emphasized that the current cycle is highly similar to historical periods of turmoil, and investors need to prepare for this.
Source: Public Information
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Ray Dalio has previously released updates on his "Principles" series through LinkedIn, podcasts, and interviews in 2025-2026, comparing the current U.S. situation to the 1930s phase of wealth disparity and the rise of populism. This warning continues his "Big Cycle" theoretical framework, focusing on high debt-to-GDP ratios and the structural impact of AI on the job market.
On the capital front, Dalio has shifted part of Bridgewater's macro positions from traditional U.S. Treasuries to diversified assets (including gold, commodities, and hedging tools), moving resources from long-term holdings to dynamic risk parity allocations. The motivation is to protect the fund's principal amid currency depreciation driven by fiscal deficits and political uncertainty, while also capturing localized growth opportunities brought about by AI productivity increases.
Similar to his early warnings from 2019-2022 about wealth disparity leading to "civil war-like divisions," and repeated alerts in 2025 regarding the debt death spiral, the current global macro environment is transitioning from post-pandemic expansion to a phase of overlapping cycles.
Essentially, this reflects regulatory changes: massive deficits and AI disruption are accelerating the shift of pricing power from traditional fiscal policies to market-driven risk reallocation. The mechanism is that political division hinders effective reform, leading capital to flow from high-debt sovereign assets to inflation-resistant and high-productivity assets, creating a structural rebalancing under long-term turmoil.
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The larger the deficit and the wider the gap, the more turmoil becomes not an accident but an inevitable cyclical reckoning. AI is both a productivity bomb and the final accelerator of the old order. In a true big cycle, political division is never noise but the switch that reshuffles wealth.