Shein plans to list in Hong Kong on September 1, with an offering price range that values the company at approximately $25 billion to $27 billion, about a quarter of its private peak valuation of nearly $100 billion in 2022. Plans for listings in New York and London have been abandoned.

Revenue growth is expected to decline from about 21% in 2024 to 8% in 2025, with Q1 2026 showing only about 1% year-on-year growth, with quarterly revenue around $9.05 billion. Full-year revenue for 2025 is expected to be about $41.8 billion, indicating a flattening growth trajectory.

Profits are also declining. Net profit is projected to be about $3.4 billion in 2024, dropping to about $2.06 billion in 2025; Q1 2026 is expected to show a net loss of $99 million, compared to a profit of $395 million in the same period last year. Revenue in the U.S. is down about 14%, accounting for about 22.5% of total revenue.

Competition is intensifying from both sides. Temu, under Pinduoduo, is capturing market share with similarly priced small packages, while Amazon has launched Haul to enter the same price range. Short video platforms are embedding products into content streams, redistributing U.S. orders. Monthly active users in Europe have reached about 156 million, but Europe is also imposing fees on low-value packages.

Another factor is tariffs. Following the U.S. cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages, Chinese-origin clothing faces higher tax rates; the EU is also following suit with import fees on low-value e-commerce. Shein has stated it is considering raising prices in the U.S. to hedge against these changes and warns that the impact in Europe may be as significant as in the U.S.

The offering size is about 2.8 million lots, raising approximately $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion, with cornerstone subscriptions of about $383 million. The sponsors include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase. The stock code is 00625. The valuation is based on a profit multiple of just over ten times for 2025, reflecting a decelerated fast fashion model, not the growth options of three years ago.

In market mechanics, the buyers are Hong Kong stocks and original shareholders who can accept single-digit growth and tariff costs, while the sellers are private equity shares priced at $100 billion in 2022. The event is driven by the closure of tax loopholes and competition from similar players, with funds shifting from U.S. small package demand to remaining orders after price increases and other shelves; beneficiaries include Temu and content e-commerce, while those relying on tax-exempt small packages face pressure.

Source: Public Information