Goldman Sachs: AI Causes a Net Loss of 16,000 Jobs per Month in the U.S.
Goldman Sachs research shows that artificial intelligence is causing a net reduction of about 16,000 jobs per month in the U.S. labor market.
The substitution effect of AI eliminates about 25,000 jobs monthly, while the enhancement effect adds about 9,000 jobs, resulting in an overall increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with Gen Z and entry-level positions being the most affected.
Market Mechanism
Companies are adopting AI tools to reduce labor demand, shifting funds from traditional labor-intensive positions to investments in AI technology and high-skilled talent. Traditional white-collar and entry-level employers are under pressure, while AI infrastructure suppliers and high-productivity workers benefit.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Goldman Sachs has previously released multiple reports on the impact of AI on employment, predicting that 300 million jobs globally are at risk of automation, and has quantified actual labor data changes through both substitution and enhancement metrics over the past year.
Capital is accelerating towards AI automation tools and retraining programs, with companies compressing the size of mid- to low-skill teams by deploying code generation, content tools, etc., while increasing investments in AI-assisted positions to enhance overall productivity and control labor costs.
Similar to the impact of textile machines replacing manual labor during the 19th-century industrial revolution and the effect of computer automation on clerical work in the 20th century, the current U.S. labor market is in the early stages of a rapid transformation from AI as an "assistive tool" to "systemic replacement."
Structural Judgment
Essentially a technological substitution: AI internalizes repetitive cognitive tasks into software by enhancing productivity, leading to a shift in labor demand from a broad range of mid- to low-skill positions to a few high AI-collaboration capability roles. This change is accelerating due to generative AI lowering deployment thresholds and corporate cost pressures.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Technology first replaces repetitive labor, then conventional judgment; adapters reconstruct, while resistors exit.
Short-term net job loss, long-term net productivity gain; the cost of transition is always the highest.
Tools eliminate old skills, create new structures; winners leverage, rather than sell time.