Former U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated that Iran still has substantial control over the Strait of Hormuz, and maritime safety and commercial shipping have not returned to normal.

Public shipping data indicates that only 7 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from 17 the previous day and below the average of 15 ships per day over the past 10 days; this includes 2 medium-range oil tankers, 1 very large liquefied gas carrier, 1 Ultramax bulk carrier, 1 medium-sized oil tanker, and 2 chemical tankers.

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Tehran is formulating a list of conditions for reopening the strait and is discussing a designated route through Iranian and Omani waters; the conditions proposed by Iran have included lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, compensation, and the removal of sanctions.

Iran previously demanded that vessels not pass without its permission, leading most shipping companies to avoid the strait even after U.S. military claims that the route was open and mines had been cleared. Vessel tracking agencies estimate that the current actual shipping volume is only 5% to 15% of normal levels.

The U.S. Central Command stated that it has assisted 1,500 commercial vessels and approximately 750 million barrels of crude oil to pass through the strait, and that U.S. forces have cleared mines previously laid by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard; however, Iran continues to link navigation arrangements, passage conditions, and control of the strait to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and the state of war.

In market mechanisms, Iran compresses effective capacity through security threats, navigation permits, and potential passage arrangements, causing shipping companies, tanker charterers, and traders to reduce crossings due to war risks, detours, and attack risks; alternative routes, floating storage, non-strait export pipelines, and regional crude oil suppliers are taking on overflow logistics and spot demand. Oil-producing countries, refiners, and liquefied natural gas buyers reliant on Persian Gulf exports are under pressure, while crude oil, refined oil, liquefied gas, oil shipping rates, and war risk premiums are driven by events to gain risk premiums.

Source: Public Information