Goldman Sachs Predicts SpaceX AI Division Revenue to Surge to $322 Billion by 2030
Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX to achieve a $1.78 trillion IPO valuation, with the core assumption being that its AI division's revenue will grow from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030, an increase of about 100 times.
Total revenue for SpaceX is projected to rise from $18.7 billion last year to $474 billion by 2030, with the AI division's revenue expected to reach $15.6 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 388%, and $34.5 billion in 2027. Starlink's revenue is expected to be $144 billion by 2030, while the rocket business will only generate $8.3 billion.
The xAI division is expected to incur a loss of $6.4 billion in 2025, but the potential market size is set at $26.5 trillion, far exceeding the combined $2 trillion of Starlink and space operations. This forecast was released as SpaceX launched its IPO roadshow, which could raise up to $86 billion.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
SpaceX has previously raised its xAI valuation to several billion dollars through multiple rounds of financing. After establishing xAI in 2024, Elon Musk quickly integrated SpaceX's computing resources and created synergies between the Grok model, Starlink, and Tesla Dojo. Musk had previously exited due to control disputes over OpenAI and started anew.
In terms of capital strategy, SpaceX is directing cash flow accumulated from rocket recovery technology and its Starlink user base towards AI infrastructure. By building its own supercomputing capabilities and data closed loops, it aims to reduce external dependencies. The strategic goal is to create a vertically integrated advantage from satellite data to AI agents to support high valuation assumptions.
This path is similar to how Tesla initially subsidized Autopilot and Dojo computing through its electric vehicle business, ultimately driving AI valuation premiums. Currently, xAI is in a fierce competition phase to catch up with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, needing breakthroughs in AI agents and multimodal fields.
Essentially, this represents a restructuring of the industry chain: the deep integration of AI computing power and aerospace infrastructure is reshaping the pricing power of the space economy, shifting from traditional launch services to a data + intelligent services composite model. If xAI achieves its projected revenue scale, it will transform SpaceX from a hardware company into a leader in AI infrastructure, with capital concentrating on vertically integrated closed loops.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Losses today, market size tomorrow; true valuation depends on who controls the largest potential space in ten years.
Capital never chases current profits but pursues structural monopolies that can reconstruct the industry chain.
The more aggressive the high-growth assumptions, the more the executors need to exchange vertical integration for pricing power transfer.