IMO Secretary-General: Strait of Hormuz Not Yet Open for Normal Navigation, Insufficient Evidence of Mine Clearance
The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal navigation status, and there is insufficient evidence to show that the mines have been completely cleared. The resumption of normal shipping cannot rely solely on declarations.
Dominguez has previously emphasized that the main shipping lane (traffic separation scheme) is unsafe due to the presence of mines, with an estimated 80 mines distributed along traditional routes. The prerequisite for restoring pre-war traffic levels is the completion of mine clearance and obtaining verifiable safety assurances.
Current actual navigation mainly relies on two alternative narrow corridors: one near the Omani coast coordinated by the U.S., and the other near Iranian waters. The traditional central shipping lane is still considered dangerous, and vessels and insurance companies are cautious about a full resumption.
Recently, Trump claimed that the strait has been cleared of mines and is open for operations, but shipping data shows that the daily navigation volume remains far below the pre-war level of about 130-140 vessels. The IMO had previously suspended related evacuation coordination due to attacks on vessels, reiterating that the safety of seafarers is a priority.
Mine clearance involves coordination among multiple parties, including Iran's promised clearance actions and possible verification support from countries like the UK and France. The process is expected to take time and requires independent verification to rebuild market confidence.
At the market mechanism level, the uncertainty of navigation in the strait continues to drive up insurance rates and rerouting costs, putting pressure on crude oil and refined oil freight rates; the situation is driven by security risks, benefiting energy traders with alternative capacity or inventory buffers, while shipowners and exporters relying on the Hormuz route are under pressure.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The International Maritime Organization, as the global standard setter for shipping safety, continues to play a neutral coordinating role during the Hormuz crisis, previously attempting to establish operational safety benchmarks through a temporary evacuation framework and navigation safety assessments, beyond the declarations of conflicting parties.
In terms of capital pathways, shipping and insurance capital are reallocating capacity and premiums due to mine risks and navigation restrictions, directing resources towards assessing alternative routes and mine clearance support capabilities, motivated by the desire to reduce uninsurable risk exposure. Specific actions include insurance companies raising war risk premiums and shipowners delaying their return to the main shipping lane.
Similar cases can be seen in the cost shifts of shipping rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope during the Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, as well as the long-term impact of mines in the Strait of Hormuz on global oil shipping during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s; currently, the strait is in a post-conflict aftermath stage, where the gap between declarations and actual safety verification determines the speed of recovery.
Essentially, this is a regulatory change: international organizations constrain unilateral navigation declarations through safety standards and evidence requirements, transforming "openness" from a political declaration into verifiable navigation conditions, thereby protecting the feasibility of seafarers and commercial shipping.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
- The standard for the strait's openness is an insurance policy, not a declaration.
- Evidence of mine clearance is more reliable for navigation speed than promises.
- The pace of shipping recovery is determined by risk pricing.