Nic Carter Warns of Imminent Threat of Quantum Computing to Bitcoin
Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, published a lengthy article stating that the quantum computing "canary in the coal mine" mechanism does not provide sufficient buffer time for Bitcoin.
Current classical computers can crack approximately 117-130 bits of ECDLP, while results from quantum computers below this threshold are often questioned as "classical cheating," making it difficult to form reliable early signals.
Once quantum computing truly breaks this classical limit, attacks on the Bitcoin secp256k1 curve may only have a few months left, while completing the migration to quantum signatures could take years. Nic Carter calls for immediate preparation for post-quantum (PQ) migration, rather than relying on bounty addresses or Satoshi's dormant addresses for warnings.
Source: Public Information
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Nic Carter, a well-known analyst in the crypto industry and partner at Castle Island Ventures, has previously written extensively about Bitcoin's long-term security. This lengthy article continues his ongoing focus from the 2018 SegWit upgrade to current post-quantum cryptography research, having previously criticized the industry's optimistic underestimation of quantum risks.
On the capital front, Nic Carter urges Bitcoin core developers, miner node operators, and holders to immediately invest resources in developing and testing post-quantum signature schemes (such as XMSS, LMS, or Dilithium). The motivation is to avoid a situation where quantum machines suddenly break through within a "few months window," leading to mass cracking of private keys, shifting Bitcoin's network security budget from current maintenance to proactive protocol upgrades, preventing systemic risks to large on-chain assets before migration is completed.
Similar discussions are ongoing regarding Ethereum's long-term planning for transitioning from ECDSA to post-quantum friendly schemes, or NIST's standardization of multiple post-quantum algorithms in 2024-2025. Currently, Bitcoin is in the early preparation stage as the quantum threat approaches from theory to practice, focusing on community consensus and the feasibility of soft forks.
Essentially, this is a capital concentration under technological substitution: Bitcoin needs to replace the existing ECDSA secp256k1 with post-quantum signature algorithms, as the speed of quantum computing breakthroughs far exceeds the on-chain migration cycle. This shifts security resources from passive warnings to active protocol upgrades, transforming Bitcoin's long-term pricing power and network security trust from "assuming quantum is far away" to "immediate migration preparation."