Bitcoin Network's Next Halving Expected Around April 2028, Reducing to 1.5625 BTC per Block
Multiple data platforms confirm that the Bitcoin network has completed about 50% of the block progress from the last halving in 2024 to the next halving, with the current miner block reward at 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected around April 2028, reducing to 1.5625 BTC per block. This "50% milestone" is seen within the industry as a sign of a "mid-term stress test," indicating that the current cycle has entered an accelerated phase of rebalancing revenue and costs based on the decline in rewards and miner cash flow structure.
Several mining and analysis institutions point out that compared to the 2020-2024 cycle, the unit hash cost for miners in this halving cycle has significantly increased, while price volatility and transaction fee structures have become more complex. By 2026, some large operators have preemptively sold reserve assets and adjusted power contracts to cope with the "3.125 to 1.5625" mid-term test, suggesting that profitability compression may occur before the official halving.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
“50%进度点”不仅是时间度量，更是结构性风险的再分配节点。前半段周期，矿工在相对高奖励环境下有余裕进行资本结构优化，而进入后半程，收益减半预期成为价格、算力和电力成本的同步压力测试。在高哈希算力与高能源成本叠加下，低边际成本矿场的“护城河”会被进一步放大，产业集中度随之上升，而边缘矿机会被提前挤出。
从制度结构看，这种定期减半机制实际上是将货币供应的“长期通胀曲线”硬编码为“离散式危机重估”。市场与矿业每次在减半周期中，都会经历“利润→再投资→算力增长→价格压缩→成本结构重塑”的完整循环，相当于在每四年重复一次“资本‑资产‑能源”三重博弈。在50%位置，市场开始提前用价格与流动性结构，对“减半冲击”进行折现，矿工也会在设备、合约与金融结构上做出前置调整。
长期趋势上，这种“50%‑100%”结构将使比特币演化成一种“有限周期‑结构性危机”资产：每年看似平稳，但每四年自动重置一次激励与风险结构。减半既不是“利好出尽”，也不是“灾难”，而是制度化设计的“清算‑再分配”齿轮，推动资本持续向高效率节点迁移，也让外部投资者在每次周期中，被反复训练为“风险再定价者”而非“静态持有者”。