Russia Begins Easing Fuel Sales Restrictions in Multiple Regions After Ukrainian Attacks on Refineries Partially Alleviate Nationwide Shortages
According to English media and local officials, gas stations in Moscow, Bryansk, Kaluga, Smolensk, and other regions have significantly reduced waiting times and partially lifted temporary purchase restrictions, easing previous sales limits on single vehicle purchases and prohibiting the filling of oil barrels due to fuel shortages.
Previously, missile and drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries had weakened about a quarter to a third of refining capacity, leading to nationwide fuel shortages. Most regions implemented purchase limits of 20-40 liters of gasoline and 80 liters of diesel per vehicle, and completely banned the sale of oil barrels. Some areas even declared a state of emergency to curb panic buying and hoarding.
Currently, the easing of restrictions is mainly concentrated in central and some western regions where supply has recovered relatively quickly, indicating a slight recovery in local wholesale supply and inventory. The retail side is transitioning from "mandatory purchase limits + long queues" to "limited adjustments"; however, the southern, far eastern, and some war-affected areas still face complex situations. The Russian side continues to retain more refined oil domestically through export bans and lowering fuel standards, attempting to rebalance domestic demand and fiscal revenue against the backdrop of wartime strikes and production damage.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Historically, this round of Russia's fuel crisis has continued from Ukraine's systematic strikes on refineries and oil depots since 2025. Media statistics show that at least 21 large refineries have been attacked since 2025, repeatedly reducing refining capacity by about one-fifth or more in the short term. Russia previously experienced regional gasoline shortages in 2023-2024 due to domestic price fluctuations and export policy adjustments, but this time, the combination of attack frequency and refining concentration has rapidly expanded the crisis from marginal areas to almost all time zones.
In terms of capital pathways, the key measures for Russia to respond to fuel shortages involve reconstructing the profit distribution of refined oil through administrative and trade policies: on one hand, extending the gasoline export ban and suppressing the foreign sales revenue of some refining enterprises, locking more products in the domestic market; on the other hand, allowing fuel standards to drop from Euro 5 to Euro 3 and relaxing technical requirements for some refineries to reduce costs, effectively reallocating part of the "refinery profits + export revenues" to "domestic available supply" to maintain social stability and wartime supply.
In terms of analogy and industry position, Russia's current fuel rationing and purchase restriction mechanisms are similar to historical energy economic models under wartime or sanctions: for example, Iran controlled gasoline consumption through ration cards during sanctions, and Venezuela maintained basic supply through subsidies and purchase limits after the collapse of its refining system. As one of the world's major crude oil producers, the systemic shortage of refined oil in Russia exposes the vulnerability of refining and logistics chains to precise strikes, shifting its position in the global energy market from a "stable supplier" to a "high-risk area," intensifying external buyers' and traders' reassessment of the risk premium on Russian energy assets.
In terms of structural judgment, the adjustment from strict purchase limits to partial easing essentially belongs to "industrial chain reconstruction + transfer of pricing power": Ukraine's continued attacks on refining and transportation nodes have forced Russia to shift its energy governance focus from "export-driven + fiscal maximization" to "domestic demand priority + wartime resilience." The power of refining enterprises and oil companies in pricing and exports has been compressed by administrative orders and wartime policies, with pricing power increasingly shifting to the central government and security agencies. At the same time, the international market's view of Russian refined oil and crude oil has expanded from purely price issues to "sustainable supply and political risk" issues, prompting global buyers to make adjustments in the medium to long-term supply structure.