Arthur Hayes Claims Stronger Belief in Bitcoin than Ethereum for the Next 5 Years

Arthur Hayes has long been a proponent of the Bitcoin macro narrative. At the beginning of 2022, his portfolio was 50% Bitcoin and 50% Ethereum, but he later adjusted it to 25% BTC and 75% ETH due to ETH being relatively undervalued. His recent public shift to a higher belief in BTC over the next five years continues to emphasize Bitcoin's core position as a liquidity indicator, which he highlighted since his BitMEX days.

In terms of capital allocation, Hayes has concentrated most of his net worth in Bitcoin, with minor investments in ZEC and HYPE, motivated by Bitcoin being the "most validated digital asset" that can amplify returns during Trump-era policies and liquidity easing cycles. By making public statements, he aims to guide market sentiment and strengthen his influence in the crypto space.

Similar to his previous adjustments in BTC/ETH weight at cycle turning points, or institutions like MicroStrategy heavily investing in Bitcoin rather than ETH, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of consolidating its dominance, while Ethereum faces marginalization pressure in multi-chain competition.

This essentially represents a transfer of pricing power: Bitcoin is reclaiming relative pricing power from the Ethereum smart contract narrative through stronger cycle performance and institutional adoption. The mechanism is that the market re-anchors Bitcoin's scarcity premium based on historical ATH breakthroughs, while ETH faces long-term capital allocation shifting towards "digital gold" amid L2 fragmentation and the rise of competing chains.