Bank of America Warns: SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs May End Bull Market
Bank of America has released a report warning that if SpaceX and Anthropic initiate IPOs, it could signal the end of the current tech-driven bull market.
Both companies are high-valuation unicorns in the AI and aerospace sectors, with SpaceX valued at over $200 billion and Anthropic valued at approximately $18 billion. Analysts believe that large-scale IPOs will release significant supply, triggering profit-taking in the market.
Institutional investors may significantly reduce their holdings in tech stocks through the IPO window, shifting funds from the overvalued AI sector to other asset classes.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Bank of America has previously issued similar warnings at high levels of tech stocks, and this time specifically naming SpaceX and Anthropic continues its judgment on the "super unicorn IPO supply shock." Historically, star IPOs like Uber and Airbnb have led to sector corrections, and these two companies are larger in scale, compounded by the fact that current AI valuations are at historical highs.
In terms of capital flow, early investors in SpaceX and Anthropic (including a16z, Thrive Capital, etc.) and employee stock holdings will face significant unlocking pressure, and exiting through IPOs will drive funds from the "growth narrative" to "value and defensive" assets, similar to the style shift after tech stocks peaked in 2021.
Similar to the Nasdaq's correction after the 2021 tech IPO wave, and the historical "sell the news" effect following super unicorn listings, the U.S. stock market is currently in the later stages of a bull market with the "supply shock window" gradually opening.
Essentially, this is a concentration of capital: the IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic will release long-locked early capital into the secondary market, restructuring funds from the overvalued AI/aerospace sectors into a more diversified allocation. Mechanically, this will end the current liquidity-driven bull market through massive supply and profit-taking, pushing the market from a growth-led to a balanced or defensive-led structural shift.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Super unicorn IPOs are never the peak of a bull market, but rather the beginning of profit-taking. When early investors collectively cash out, the market enters a phase of "turning profits into reality." The signal for the end of a bull market is often the moment when the biggest winners start ringing the bell.