Economist/YouGov Poll: Trump's Approval Rating Drops to 33%, a New Low for Two Terms
The latest poll by The Economist and YouGov shows that U.S. President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33%, marking a new low for his two terms.
62% of respondents disapprove of his performance, with 50% "strongly disapproving."
Only 22% believe the U.S. economy is in good shape, while 65% think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
The war in Iran and gasoline prices around $4 per gallon are cited as major contributing factors.
With about three months until the midterm elections, Democrats currently lead in generic congressional ballot polls.
From a market perspective, event-driven reassessment of U.S. political risks is underway: low approval ratings increase uncertainty for the midterm elections, putting pressure on the dollar and Treasury bond fluctuations, while benefiting safe-haven assets.
The poll sample consisted of approximately 1,589 U.S. adult citizens, with a margin of error of about ±3.2 percentage points.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Trump's approval rating has gradually declined from a high point in the early stages of his second term, with rising energy prices and inflation pressures due to the Iran conflict being core detractors, compounded by a lack of economic optimism.
In terms of capital dynamics, ongoing wars and sanctions continue to deplete political capital, motivated by the need to maintain nuclear red lines and economic pressure, but at the cost of domestic voters' sensitivity to prices, affecting the Republican Party's midterm prospects.
Historical precedents show that past presidents have lost support due to prolonged wars and inflation, and low approval ratings before midterm elections have punitive effects on the ruling party; currently, voters are prioritizing concerns about the cost of living.
Structural judgments belong to regulatory changes: the economic costs of war alter intra-party incentives, with the mechanism being that voters directly link gasoline prices to conflicts, forcing the Republican Party to weigh loyalty against electoral prospects.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Gasoline prices are the hardest political barometer
Prolonged wars will ultimately backfire on domestic support
Low approval ratings amplify midterm election risks