Pentagon Instructs U.S. Central Command to Prepare for Major Operations Against Iran
Days ago, the Pentagon instructed the U.S. Central Command to complete preparations to resume significant military operations against Iran. The directive did not specify a date for strikes. U.S. officials told Axios that President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision.
Sources from the U.S. and Israel say that operations could potentially occur before the U.S. midterm elections or possibly a week before Israel's elections. If resumed, large-scale bombings targeting Iran's energy, infrastructure, and nuclear sites are expected. Axios reported that a resumption of hostilities in the next three to four weeks could impact the midterm elections, partly due to potential increases in oil prices. Pentagon officials stated that the Defense Department's role is to develop options and present them to the president.
White House officials said Trump has all options available at any time. The official stated that the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's economy is collapsing, and Iran has been severely damaged, with events likely to take either an easy or difficult path. Earlier the same day, The Atlantic reported that Trump is weighing whether to strike Iran before the midterm elections, which are on November 3.
Last Friday, Trump's national security team held a several-hour meeting at Camp David, discussing topics including war. An Israeli official told Axios that part of the discussion was about potentially resuming significant operations against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated after the meeting that the focus was on long-term diplomatic planning. There has been no progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the Qatari mediators are still waiting for Iran's response to the U.S. counter-proposal, which includes nuclear concessions. Another Israeli official said the likelihood of action before the elections is low, but not ruled out. The probability significantly increases after the midterm elections.
Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, marking the second call in days, following a period of almost no communication. U.S. officials said the call was to commemorate and honor the victims of the October 7 attack. The call occurred after Netanyahu discussed Iran with his national security team. Netanyahu also spoke with Rubio on Monday. If significant operations resume, it is highly likely that the U.S. and Israel will coordinate, with Israeli forces participating. Two Israeli officials stated that the Iranian regime is desperate and suspicious, possibly prompting them to act first. They noted that Iran has already suffered two attacks and does not want a third.
The buyers are the White House and the Israeli government, pricing military options according to the electoral window, while the sellers are Iran, which still controls energy facilities and has not responded to the counter-proposal regarding nuclear concessions. This is a risk repricing driven by the preparation directive, not an announced date for war. Funds will first flow into oil risk premiums, then see if the Strait is still claimed to be controlled. The beneficiaries are the ruling parties that can bring tensions into the final stages of the election, while Iran's energy exports, approximately 50,000 U.S. troops stationed in the region, and the potential for hundreds of ballistic missiles to strike Israel's rear are under pressure.
Resuming or even just escalating tensions could make it difficult for opponents to attack Netanyahu in the final stages of the election. The probability before the elections is marked as low by Israeli officials, but significantly increases afterward.
Source: Public Information
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Military contact between the U.S. and Iran did not start with this preparation order. The tanker wars of the 1980s already tied Hormuz and insurance costs together. The 2015 nuclear agreement exchanged enrichment activities for sanctions relief, and after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, sanctions and enrichment returned to their original positions. After the assassination of Soleimani in 2020, Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq, and both sides kept the conflict below the threshold of full-scale war. Axios's use of the term "resume" indicates that the current directive connects to an ongoing cycle, not the first shot.
Money is currently focused on three time points. November 3 is the U.S. midterm elections, with Israel's elections occurring about a week earlier. The Camp David meeting and two calls with Netanyahu shifted the window from a military agenda to a political agenda. Qatar is still waiting for Iran's response to the counter-proposal containing nuclear concessions, and the stagnation in negotiations itself leaves options open for bombing energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets. The White House has framed control of the Strait and Iran's economic collapse as existing leverage, with Axios directly stating that a potential resumption in three to four weeks could impact voter sentiment.
This is in the same phase as the troop displays before the Gulf War in 1991 and the ultimatum before the Iraq War in 2003, but not the same outcome. In both cases, preparations were completed first, followed by waiting for political decisions. The difference this time is that Israel is likely to be involved in the conflict, with retaliatory strikes expected to target hundreds of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel. The pre-election probability is marked as low by Israeli officials themselves, but significantly increases afterward, so it is currently at the stage of controlling options, not at the stage of completed war initiation.
Essentially, it is a transfer of pricing power. The prices of oil fields and nuclear facilities shift from the negotiation table's concession list to the strike window. The mechanism is that the preparation order raises insurance, freight, and oil risk premiums without needing presidential approval. Voters see oil prices, Tehran sees a third attack, and Netanyahu sees an emergency state in the final stages of the election. Decisions may not be made, but prices have already begun to move.
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Once the preparation order is issued, the market will first factor in the price of war.
The sounds of cannon fire before the election often first impact oil prices.
After options are prepared, not making a decision is also a form of pressure.