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Huobi Co-founder Du Jun: No Successful Entrepreneurs Created in Ten Years

Du Jun, co-founder of Huobi and ABCDE, shared Sam Altman's old speech about the necessity for founders to continuously generate new ideas, stating that over the past decade, his greatest learning experience has been in trying to create entrepreneurs, all of whom ultimately failed.

Altman mentioned in a 2018 Y Combinator investor school that while a founder can be given an idea to start a company, the challenge is that the company must come up with new ideas almost weekly, making drastic adjustments and directional changes. Y Combinator conducted an experiment funding 20 strong teams that lacked ideas, and all failed.

Altman's conclusion is that good founders are those who continuously generate ideas, possessing intelligence, creativity, independent thinking, and the ability to view problems differently and conceive things that should exist but do not. Without this continuous flow of ideas, even the best execution teams cannot sustain the pressure of weekly iterations with a ready-made idea.

Du Jun related this to his own experiences over the past decade: it was not a lack of money, traffic, exchange access, or media exposure, but rather repeated attempts to "manufacture entrepreneurs"—providing direction, resources, and scenarios—resulting in no successful samples. He has simultaneously managed exchanges, media, funds, and compliance risk control platforms, covering a path from being a product manager at Discuz, to Tencent, co-founding Huobi in 2013, and later ABCDE, Vernal, and compliance infrastructure.

This type of failure structurally recurs: the "created" founders can launch the first version of a product but cannot generate the next week's crazy new ideas in response to market feedback, regulatory changes, liquidity exhaustion, or narrative shifts. The result is projects that can be narrated and financed but cannot be continuously reconstructed.

In market mechanisms, what is bought is "incubatable execution capability," and what is sold is "sustainable idea flow." Funds flow from exchange fees, fund LPs, and cash cow assets like domain names to designated entrepreneurial teams; benefiting those who already possess high idea flow, amplifying their iterations through existing channels; while the burden falls on founders treated as mass-producible objects and the investors who pay for their time and capital. This is an event-driven cognitive correction, not a new fundraising cycle.

For reference: Altman wrote about the same experiment in his Idea Generation article—almost all teams in the no-idea track failed; he later emphasized that once a project is elevated to a "company," ideas cannot be too crazy, easily turning into seemingly reasonable derivatives. Du Jun's ten-year sample and YC's 20-team sample point to the same filter.

Source: Public Information

ABAB AI Insight

Y Combinator conducted a reverse experiment during Altman's tenure: selecting people first, then providing ideas. All 20 teams with "good conditions otherwise" failed, forcing YC to revert its selection criteria from "smart and capable" to "does this person continuously generate ideas?" This same logic is amplified in the Huobi system: while exchanges can provide licenses, adjacent resources, traffic, market-making, and media, they cannot transform these resources into the founders' ability to reconstruct direction weekly.

The capital path subsidizes ideas through channels, rather than ideas driving channels. The cash along Du Jun's path comes from early domain names, Tencent options, Huobi fees, and subsequent funds, redirected to teams in designated tracks. The motivation is to replicate his leap from webmaster to exchange, with the strategic assumption that "resources can substitute for originality." When this assumption breaks, funds do not disappear; they simply revert from "creating people" to "buying existing idea flow" and controllable compliance and trading infrastructure.

The comparison is not with ordinary accelerators but with YC's failed experiment itself, and a large number of crypto incubators promising ready-made tracks, token models, and listings to teams. The industry phase has shifted from the expansion of 2017-2021 (where anyone could be "incubated" into a narrative) to control and selection: those who can survive are those who can change direction weekly, while channel providers shrink to trading, custody, and compliance—these are priceable and repeatable layers.

Structural judgment pertains to the consolidation of selection rights after the failure of technical substitution. What is being replaced is not a specific product, but the assumption that "founders can be manufactured." The mechanism is: once a company is established, ideas must sound reasonable, and reasonable ideas have a high mortality rate in rapidly shifting markets; what is truly scarce is the flow of crazy new ideas that can be proposed before societal approval. Channels can buy execution but cannot buy this flow, thus pricing power shifts back from incubators to the original sources of ideas.

ABAB News · Cognitive Laws

  1. Channels can amplify ideas but cannot produce them.

  2. Providing direction equates to shutting down weekly crazy reconstructions.

  3. Manufacturable founders do not survive the first week of needing to change direction.