Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke: Canada's Best Strategy Has Always Been to Help the U.S. Win
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke stated that Canada's best strategy has always been to help the U.S. win. The path involves strength, sovereignty, diligence, and extreme competence, ideally completing large infrastructure projects on budget and on time. He specifically mentioned the nuclear power sector as having achieved this. By accomplishing these goals, other issues will resolve themselves, and Europe and others will be happy to trade partners.
He used the same phrasing in February when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed support for the U.S. in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; he replied that this was a moment to build upon, with the forward strategy always being "win, by helping the U.S. win." When the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff in 2025, he wrote that Canada could only prosper alongside the U.S., and retaliation would only make the U.S. shrug and lead to Canadian recession, stating that border control and fentanyl management were not unreasonable conditions.
Shopify was founded in 2006 by him, Daniel Weinand, and Scott Lake in Ottawa and is now one of Canada's highest-valued publicly traded companies, with Q2 revenue of approximately $3.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Internally, he has set a threshold for AI, stating that before expanding the workforce, it must be proven that machines cannot do the work, and he has publicly criticized using taxpayer subsidies to attract foreign tech companies that lock in local talent. Recently, he disclosed a reduction in holdings under Rule 144 and a 10b5-1 plan, with a closing price of about $147 on August 31.
In the nuclear sector, Canada still has the CANDU reactor tradition and large owners like Ontario Power Generation. The Indigenous-led transportable nuclear power plant project in New Brunswick is planning about 50 MW of power, aiming to select technology by the end of this decade and begin operations in the early 2030s, with Westinghouse's eVinci micro-reactor as a main candidate. In August, he praised the investment in nearly 14 GW of clean energy at Churchill Falls, which includes existing capacity, with new electricity taking years to come online. Canadian regulatory resources are thin, making it harder for startup reactors to queue; some founders choose to first obtain licenses in the U.S. before discussing deployment back home.
The trade structure remains asymmetrically dependent: the U.S. is the largest customer, with Canada providing aluminum, potash, energy, critical minerals, and the first radar line for North American air defense. Politically, there are both industry factions that support "helping the U.S. win" and sovereignty factions that advocate for reciprocal countermeasures and reducing reliance on a single market. His answer is to first establish Canada as a nation that delivers infrastructure on time, then invite others to become partners.
In market mechanisms, the buyers are U.S. capital seeking stable northern allies and electricity and minerals, while the sellers are Canadian exporters and nuclear supply chains that write sovereignty into their execution capabilities. This is an agenda-driven issue rather than a single-day market topic: tariffs and merger threats have turned "how to get along with the U.S." back into a stock price spillover issue. Capital flows toward electricity sources that can connect to the grid on time and cross-border e-commerce software; beneficiaries include Shopify, which is already making money in the U.S. market, and nuclear companies with exportable reactor types, while those under pressure are branches that rely on subsidies to lock in talent and public projects that cannot meet deadlines.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
After turning Shopify into one of the few world-class software companies in Canada, Lutke repeatedly states that the national culture is about "chasing bronze medals." He considers the Winter Olympics' "occupying the podium" an exception: allowing for a pursuit of world first leads to results. Helping the U.S. win is a diplomatic translation of the same growth mindset—small countries align with large ones, either becoming an extension of their capacity or being priced out by tariffs. He remains in Canada because he likes it; the condition is that the government should stop using subsidies to rent scarce engineers to foreign headquarters.
The capital path involves cross-border e-commerce commissions flowing back to Ottawa, verbally investing in nuclear power and project credibility. Shopify's cash comes from transaction flows of U.S. merchants, while nuclear power discussions point to future data centers and northern electricity supply. The fact that a founder of a $90 billion market cap company is reducing holdings and foundations are selling does not change the reality that he needs U.S. consumers to keep placing orders. Helping the U.S. win equates to protecting one's income currency and demand pool.
Analogous to Ireland's tech ties to the U.S., Mexico's automotive industry, and Australia's defense relations: medium-sized countries build their industries by filling gaps in the U.S. If Canadian nuclear power can indeed meet budgets and timelines, it supplements the electricity needed for AI computing power; if it fails, talent and reactor licenses will continue to flow south. The industry's position is in a transitional phase where sovereignty narratives clash with supply chain realities, not a decoupling phase.
Structural judgments belong to alliance pricing within the reconstruction of the industrial chain. The mechanism is: geography determines trade shares, and timelines determine negotiation leverage. Tariffs target weakness, not distance. Whoever can deliver reactors and hydroelectric plants on contract has the right to claim sovereignty; sovereignty that cannot be delivered is merely another line on the tariff sheet.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
The sovereignty of small countries is often written on the orders of large countries.
Only countries that complete projects on time are qualified to talk about independence.
Helping the strong win is sometimes the only offense for the weak.