JPMorgan Warns of Possible Global Food Supply Crisis Next Year
JPMorgan has warned that a large-scale global food supply crisis may erupt next year due to factors such as fertilizer shortages.
The bank's report points out that five major factors—war, weather, storage, water resources, and waste—are combining to shape the outline of a global food crisis, with food inflation pressures expected to persist until the first half of 2027.
The global food inflation rate is expected to rise from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027.
Ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a potentially record-breaking super El Niño, are weakening crop yields and compressing agricultural production capacity.
As a core input, the rising price of fertilizers will directly translate to higher crop costs and push up food retail prices.
From a market mechanism perspective, limited fertilizer and energy supplies are driving up agricultural production costs, with capital flowing towards alternative fertilizers and food stocks, leading to heightened expectations for food inflation, putting pressure on import-dependent countries while benefiting fertilizer producers and traders.
Supplementary data shows that emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, and Brazil are particularly affected.
Source: Public Information
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As a major global financial institution, JPMorgan has previously released multiple reports on climate and geopolitics related to inflation, historically linking food security closely with disruptions in energy channels and emphasizing the cumulative effects of compounded shocks.
On the capital pathway, the report focuses on fertilizers as a directly vulnerable link, aiming to warn of prolonged inflation pathways and strategically guiding clients to pay attention to agricultural inputs and emerging market risk exposures.
Similar cases can be seen in the 2022 fertilizer crisis and the subsequent surge in food prices; currently, global agriculture is under high pressure from geopolitical disruptions and climate overlays.
Structural judgments belong to the reconstruction of the industrial chain: because fertilizer supply bottlenecks directly limit output, the mechanism shifts food pricing from harvest expectations to input availability, forcing producing countries and traders to adjust planting and inventory strategies, shifting pricing power from end consumers to upstream resource control.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Fertilizer shortages are a precursor signal of a food crisis
Multiple shocks amplify supply vulnerabilities
Food inflation cycles often lag behind input crises