Redfin analysis: If mortgage rates remain around 7.5% and home prices stop rising, housing costs may take about six years to return to 2018 levels

Redfin said in a report released on October 8, 2026, that if 30-year mortgage rates remain at the current level of about 7.5% and home price growth stalls, housing costs could take about six years to return to a “normal” level. The company defines “normal” as the monthly mortgage payment as a share of income returning to 30% in August 2018.

The report also said that if rates fall to 6% and home price growth remains around 2.1%, that level could be reached within five years (around 2031); if rates remain at 7% to 8% and home prices continue rising at the current pace, it may take 10 years or longer. About half of major metropolitan areas, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa, would need 10 years or more under most scenarios.

Original sources:

1. Title: Redfin Report: U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to "Normal" Within 5 Years Publisher: Redfin / PR Newswire Publication date: 2026-10-08 URL: https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20261008de66655/redfin-report-us-housing-costs-could-return-to-normal-within-5-years Source type: company report press release Verification status: relevant passages read in this access; accessed 2026-10-25 Supporting content: if rates are about 7.5% and home price growth stalls, it takes about six years to return to the 2018 30% of income level; if rates are 6% and home price growth is 2.1%, about five years; high rates plus continued price increases may take more than 10 years; half of metro areas more than 10 years.

2. Title: When will US housing costs return to normal? Publisher: Mortgage Professional Publication date: 2026-10-09 URL: https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-industry/market-updates/when-will-us-housing-costs-return-to-normal/593042 Source type: media report Verification status: relevant passages read in this access; accessed 2026-10-25 Supporting content: Redfin defines normal as returning to the 2018 30% ratio; multiple interest-rate and home-price scenarios; New York, Chicago and others need more than 10 years.

3. Title: When Will Housing Costs Return To Normal? Timeline By Metro Publisher: Inman Publication date: 2026-10-08 URL: https://www.inman.com/2026/10/08/housing-costs-return-to-normal-by-metro/ Source type: media report Verification status: relevant passages read in this access; accessed 2026-10-25 Supporting content: 7.5% rates + stalled home prices around 2032; New York and others need more than 10 years under most scenarios.