Ethereum Co-founder Vitalik: AI Hardly Threatens Bitcoin's Security
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin publicly responded to a prediction that "AI could cause Bitcoin to drop by more than 50% within two years," clearly stating that he stands in opposition to this prediction, and asserting that the probability of Bitcoin's hash algorithm or proof-of-work mechanism being truly compromised is "extremely low."
The prediction was made by angel investor and AI risk commentator Liron Shapira, who believes that advancements in AI technology could fundamentally undermine the market's "cognitive trust" in Bitcoin's security, giving this scenario a 50% certainty probability with a two-year time frame; Shapira emphasized that the core risk is not that Bitcoin will necessarily face actual technical breaches, but that AI could shake investors' "previously held" consensus on Bitcoin's security guarantees.
Buterin responded by expressing an optimistic long-term outlook on network security, believing that most AI-related threats facing Bitcoin can be addressed through client software upgrades and mining pool infrastructure patches, without needing to alter the underlying social consensus of the network; he clearly distinguished the risks Bitcoin may face into two categories—"operational layer vulnerabilities" that can be patched through software updates, and "fundamental cryptographic breaches" that require broader community consensus to address, stating that the probability of the latter truly breaking through hash functions or proof-of-work itself is "extremely low."
According to reports, Buterin's personal holdings (mainly ETH) account for about 90% of his net worth, and this holding structure is seen as an implicit bet on his judgment that "AI will not lead to a systemic collapse of Bitcoin-like crypto assets."
The report also mentioned that Bitcoin security-related organizations are actively seeking to acquire more advanced AI capabilities, aiming to identify potential protocol layer vulnerabilities ahead of potential attackers, reflecting that the industry is already preparing for this new variable of "AI-assisted offense and defense."
From the market response, as of the publication of this report, Bitcoin's price was around $80,000, having previously reached a high of $82,239; the public debate regarding "whether AI will destroy Bitcoin's security narrative" essentially affects the market's pricing of Bitcoin's long-term security premium—if the "AI breach theory" is accepted by the mainstream market, it could lower the premium investors are willing to pay for Bitcoin's security, accelerating the flow of funds from proof-of-work assets like Bitcoin to asset classes considered less impacted by AI; Buterin's public opposition to this pessimistic prediction as a leading figure in the industry helps stabilize market confidence in the long-term security narrative of mainstream proof-of-work assets.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Buterin has historically commented on the technical differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum in public forums, such as advocating for Ethereum's transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake (which was completed in 2022 with the "Merge"). This time, he instead defended the security of Bitcoin's proof-of-work rather than seizing the opportunity to undermine a competitor's public chain, continuing his consistent style of "addressing issues on their merits without distorting technical judgments due to camp interests."
In terms of personal holdings, Buterin has about 90% of his net worth concentrated in crypto assets like ETH, and this highly concentrated position structure ties his personal economic interests closely to the long-term security narrative of the entire crypto asset class (not just Ethereum)—if the pessimistic prediction that "AI destroys trust in proof-of-work" comes true, his wealth would also significantly shrink with the systemic revaluation of assets like Bitcoin, making his public statement both a technical judgment and an implicit endorsement to hedge his own asset risks.
This kind of behavior of "well-known figures publicly betting on the long-term security narrative of crypto assets" is similar to the actions of industry leaders publicly taking sides during the Bitcoin fork wars in 2017 and the founders of exchanges competing to publicly demonstrate reserve proofs after the FTX collapse in 2022—when technical uncertainties (this time AI) impact market confidence, public endorsements from leading figures in the industry often serve as a "de facto confidence guarantee"; the current stage of the industry is one where, after AI capabilities continue to spill over into network security and cryptographic offense and defense, the crypto asset industry needs to re-establish public recognition of its security model.
Essentially, this is an early game of "technological substitution" and "pricing power transfer"—mechanistically, the security premium of Bitcoin is fundamentally based on the economic assumption that "the cost of breaking hash power is far higher than the attack benefits," and if AI can significantly lower the threshold for cryptographic attacks or hash power optimization, it could theoretically reprice this layer of security premium; however, Buterin pointed out that the key distinction is that a true cryptographic breakthrough at the protocol layer (such as SHA-256 being compromised) is different from operational layer vulnerabilities that can be patched through upgrades; as long as the industry can continuously digest the operational layer risks brought by AI through rapid iterations at the client and mining pool levels, the core pricing power of Bitcoin will remain in the hands of protocol maintainers rather than AI attackers.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Real risks never lie where patches can fix them, but in the places where assumptions collapse.
Position is stance; 90% of net worth is more honest than any statement.
Technological panic sells uncertainty, while the bill is paid by the security premium.