Bloomberg Strategist Mike McGlone: A 20% Pullback in U.S. Stocks Could Lead Bitcoin to $10,000 Support
Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone stated yesterday that if U.S. stocks pull back by 20%, Bitcoin may head towards a support level of $10,000.
He pointed out that since 2009, Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, has led the rise of risk assets, but its potential breakthrough of $100,000 in 2025, along with gold rising above $5,000 in the first quarter and most central banks adopting a cautious stance amid soaring government bond yields, may signal an endgame.
McGlone links the current market environment to historical cycles of risk assets, suggesting that Bitcoin's peak, along with new highs in gold and rising bond yields, constitutes a potential turning point.
Crypto analyst Darkfost countered that historically, even with a 20% pullback in U.S. stocks, there has never been a situation where Bitcoin dropped about 92% from its peak.
Darkfost believes this price target is highly unlikely and emphasizes that historical data does not support such extreme correlations in declines.
In terms of market mechanisms, McGlone's views may reinforce the narrative of interconnected risk assets, where funds might flow from Bitcoin to safe-haven assets like gold and bonds under event-driven circumstances, benefiting gold holders and bond investors, while Bitcoin bulls may face selling pressure.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Mike McGlone has long tracked commodity and risk asset cycles, previously comparing Bitcoin with gold and bond yields, and continues to emphasize endgame signals after Bitcoin surpasses $100,000 in 2025, maintaining his macro indicator-based approach to predicting turning points in crypto assets.
His capital path reflects public analysis influencing institutional and retail allocation judgments towards risk assets, motivated by integrating Bitcoin into traditional commodity and interest rate frameworks, guiding funds to reassess positions against the backdrop of new highs in gold and rising yields.
Similar cases include historical commodity strategists' judgments on peaks in oil or copper price cycles; currently, McGlone's positioning of Bitcoin is at a stage transitioning from the expansion of risk assets to cautious pricing.
This change essentially represents a transfer of pricing power, where, as central banks adopt a cautious stance and bond yields soar, market participants re-anchor Bitcoin from an independent risk asset to traditional macro variables, thereby altering its pricing logic and capital flows.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
- Historical peaks are the starting point of narratives, macro variables are the endpoints of pricing.
- The extent of pullbacks can be measured, but extreme declines are hard to correlate.
- When risk assets are interconnected, safe-haven assets are priced first.