US President Trump Claims Possible Second Epic Fury Operation Against Iran
US President Trump stated at a rally in Florida that the US may launch another "small-scale Epic Fury" military operation against Iran unless Iran agrees to a deal. He quoted, "We might do a small Epic Fury again, or they will agree," questioning whether Iran is wise enough to "talk business."
Operation Epic Fury was launched on February 28, 2026, as a joint US-Israeli military operation aimed at destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, navy, and preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons, with over 1,000 targets struck on the first day.
After about 38 days, a ceasefire was reached, and the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, but the conflict has now lasted nearly eight months, coinciding with rising oil prices and pressure from the US midterm elections.
Trump had previously stated that there would be no new attacks on Iran before the midterm elections, but recently, US and Israeli military reportedly developed plans to resume strikes after the elections, potentially targeting nuclear facilities.
The market views these remarks as a signal of geopolitical risk, with oil prices and related energy assets potentially rising due to event-driven factors, benefiting defense and military sectors, while Middle Eastern shipping and energy importers face pressure.
Source: Public Information
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Trump previously ordered the launch of Operation Epic Fury in February 2026, coordinating with Israel to strike Iran's missile, navy, and defense industrial bases, claiming to achieve major objectives within about 38 days before entering ceasefire negotiations, involving B-2 bombers targeting hardened facilities and large-scale airstrikes.
The operation consumed significant ammunition and manpower (reportedly costing about $33.4 billion), motivated by the aim to force Iran to concede on nuclear and missile issues through "peace through strength," while maintaining US deterrence and control over energy routes in the Middle East.
This is similar to previous operations like Operation Midnight Hammer targeting nuclear facilities and various deterrence strategies against Iran, currently in a phase of negotiation stalemate and pre-election pressure following prolonged conflict, with military options continuing to exist as a diplomatic lever.
The essence is the transfer of regulatory and pricing power: the US, by publicly threatening a second operation, shifts the negotiation dominance from the diplomatic table to military deterrence, forcing Iran to reassess the cost of concessions in the context of oil prices and elections, rather than relying solely on the existing ceasefire framework.
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- The publicization of military options serves as a preemptive lever at the negotiation table.
- Rising oil prices amplify election and geopolitical pressures.
- The threat after a ceasefire is more effective in securing pricing power than the action itself.