SemiAnalysis: Consumer Confidence Weakens, Labor Market Resilience Remains
SemiAnalysis points out that consumer confidence in the U.S. continues to decline, but the labor market has not shown a corresponding significant deterioration. The voluntary resignation rate remains low, with industrial manufacturing job vacancies increasing over the past six months, while job vacancies in the information services sector have decreased significantly. AI-induced panic is first impacting low-barrier industries, shifting economic growth from consumption to investment, even though large-scale unemployment has not yet occurred. With a low voluntary resignation rate and weak confidence, this month's non-farm employment has fallen to about 110,000, which may still suppress the unemployment rate, leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
SemiAnalysis has previously provided accurate analyses of the semiconductor supply chain and AI hardware cycles, having correctly predicted HBM memory shortages and Nvidia supply chain bottlenecks between 2023-2025. Their views are often based on chip shipment data and capital expenditure tracking.
Capital is shifting from consumption-driven services to AI infrastructure investments, with companies lowering wage growth through delayed hiring and automation, concentrating resources on data centers and computing power rather than labor expansion, aiming to hedge against supply constraints brought by an aging population.
Similar to the hiring freezes at OpenAI and tech giants in 2024-2025, the U.S. is currently in the early stages of AI technology replacement, with the information services sector being the first to feel the pressure, as expansion shifts towards capital-intensive infrastructure construction.
This fundamentally represents technological replacement and industrial chain restructuring: AI lowers the entry barriers for low-barrier jobs, accelerating the transfer of pricing power from labor to technological capital, as companies prioritize profit margins over employment stability, stemming from productivity improvements outpacing demand recovery.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Panic precedes reality, AI anxiety first suppresses consumption and then creates jobs.
Low resignation does not indicate confidence; under high uncertainty, employees trade time for stability.
Consumption shifts to investment, with technological replacement reshaping the economic structure rather than simply destroying jobs.