Coinbase CEO Armstrong Says Crypto Spot Market Is 'Very Likely' on the Verge of Next Bull Market
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the crypto spot trading market is "very likely" on the verge of the next bull market.
In an interview with CNBC, Armstrong highlighted the advancement of the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clear Act as a core catalyst, predicting that the procedural vote on September 15 could receive the necessary 60 votes for passage.
He noted that previous bear markets for Bitcoin typically lasted about 370 to 380 days, and the current correction cycle is approaching this historical duration; this forms a second basis for his judgment that the market may be nearing a turning point.
Armstrong also referenced Bitcoin's seasonal performance post-halving, stating that October, November, and December often show strong performance in past cycles. This pattern is based on a limited historical sample and should not be seen as a definitive basis for returns or price direction.
Armstrong mentioned that Bitcoin spot trading currently accounts for only about 12% of Coinbase's revenue, as the company expands into other crypto businesses; thus, his reference to a "spot trading bull market" corresponds to a business environment where trading activity, derivatives, custody, stablecoin, and institutional service demand may rise.
Mechanically, if the CLARITY Act advances, it could reduce uncertainty regarding token classification, trading venue registration, and federal regulatory boundaries, encouraging some institutional capital to increase allocation and product development willingness; however, congressional procedures, macro liquidity, ETF net subscriptions and redemptions, the dollar and real interest rates, and leveraged liquidations still dominate short-term prices. Beneficiaries include compliant exchanges, custodians, and liquidity providers, while projects relying on regulatory arbitrage or opaque issuance models may face stricter entry pressures.
Source: Public Information
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Coinbase started in 2012 with Bitcoin trading services and went public via a direct listing on Nasdaq in 2021, gradually expanding into institutional custody, derivatives, stablecoins, staking, and developer infrastructure. Armstrong emphasized that Bitcoin spot trading only accounts for 12% of revenue, reflecting Coinbase's attempt to reduce reliance on a single asset's trading volume: during bear markets, trading fee income contracts first, while subscription, custody, and stablecoin interest-related businesses are closer to sustainable cash flow.
In terms of capital pathways, the value of the CLARITY Act lies not in directly creating buy-side demand but in clarifying which types of assets, activities, and intermediaries are subject to which federal rules for banks, brokerages, asset managers, custodians, and trading platforms. Once the regulatory boundaries are predictable, institutions can convert compliance, capital, auditing, and product budgets into ETFs, tokenization, derivatives, and custody deployments; reduced uncertainty will first drive infrastructure investment, which may later translate into asset allocation demand.
Historically, the 2017 bull market was primarily driven by retail trading, initial coin offerings, and traffic from overseas platforms, while the 2020-2021 period was compounded by loose monetary policy, corporate treasury holdings, and institutional participation. If a new cycle forms now, it is closer to the "compliant capital marketization" stage: spot ETFs, regulated custody, and options markets allow traditional funds to participate but also embed crypto assets deeper into interest rates, dollar liquidity, and the risk asset deleveraging cycle, making halving no longer an independent determining variable.
The essence is regulatory change. What the market cares about is not the title of a bill but whether it can write asset classification, trading venue obligations, customer asset protection, and regulatory authority into executable rules. Mechanically, clear rules will reduce the legal tail risks for institutions entering the market but will raise the thresholds for licensing, reporting, monitoring, and capital; therefore, incremental capital is more likely to flow to large compliant platforms rather than being evenly distributed across all tokens.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
Cycles provide narratives, rules determine whether capital can enter the market
Bull markets are initiated by liquidity and retained by institutions
History repeats emotions but does not repeat structures