Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles at US Military Bases in Jordan
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that it has launched ballistic missiles and drones at two US military air bases in Jordan, in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian targets on the island of Larak in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US military reported that it previously conducted "limited and precise" actions against the launch facilities suspected of preparing to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz; public reports indicate that the US struck two launchers. This action marks the first known strike against targets in Iran since the US suspended related military operations at the end of July.
Axios cited US officials stating that Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles towards Jordan, but none hit the US bases, and there have been no reports of casualties or damage. The Jordanian military claimed its forces intercepted eight missiles entering its airspace.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that the attack caused "significant damage" to the technical infrastructure of the two bases in Jordan, contradicting claims from the US and Jordan that there were "no hits, no losses"; as of now, there is no independent public evidence to confirm the extent of the damage claimed by Iran.
Iran also claimed to have attacked a US military base in the UAE with drones, but the UAE Ministry of Defense denied that Al Minhad Air Base was attacked, stating that the claims were unfounded; the UAE confirmed it shot down one drone.
In market mechanisms, the risk of conflict has primarily raised shipping, insurance, and crude oil risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz: tankers, merchant ships, and insurers will reassess crossing costs and route arrangements; if the US expands its strikes against Iran's radar, missile, and anti-ship capabilities, beneficiaries will include defense, naval deployments, missile interception, and alternative shipping routes, while those under pressure will be Gulf oil exporters, shipping companies, and fuel-intensive aviation industries that rely on stable passage through the strait.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
This exchange of fire follows Iran's long-standing approach of "limited retaliation, leaving room for escalation." In 2020, after the US killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, Iran launched ballistic missiles at the US military base in Al Asad, Iraq; Iran maintains deterrence by publicly declaring retaliation while avoiding direct actions that would cause large-scale US casualties, thereby reducing the probability of a full US escalation. The missile action targeting the Jordanian bases similarly exists between "demonstrating range and political response" and "avoiding triggering a full-scale war."
The capital and resource pathways focus on the Strait of Hormuz rather than the Jordanian bases themselves. The US accusation that Iran is preparing to deploy sea mines indicates Washington's attempt to cut off Iran's ability to leverage low-cost sea mines, anti-ship missiles, drones, and strait threats to manipulate global energy prices; Iran responds by targeting regional US military nodes, forcing the US to allocate resources to missile defense, maritime escort, intelligence surveillance, and regional base protection. For Iran, using missiles and drones at a cost far lower than fleet deployment forces its adversary to maintain an expensive interception and escort system, constituting a typical asymmetric cost exchange.
Historical comparisons are more akin to the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq-Khurais oil facilities and the Red Sea crisis: key energy or shipping channels do not need to be closed for long; as long as risks are repriced, oil prices, tanker rental rates, war insurance premiums, and route costs will change immediately. Unlike traditional ground wars, Iran's advantage in the region lies not in continuously seizing territory but in repeatedly creating uncertainty that "any vessel could be threatened" through missiles, sea mines, drones, and proxy networks.
Essentially, this is about restructuring supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in transporting crude oil and LNG from Gulf oil-producing countries to Asia and Europe; as security risks rise, energy trade will accelerate the search for alternative exports, inventory buffers, non-strait pipelines, regional refining, and long-term transport contracts. Military missile interception will ultimately spill over into increased costs for energy transport, maritime insurance, and strategic reserves; the side controlling transport security can influence the marginal pricing of resources even without directly controlling oil resources.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Missiles target bases, global transport is repriced
Low-cost weapons excel at creating high-cost defenses
The strait does not need to be closed; the risk itself can raise oil prices