Elon Musk Warns Humanity is Dying Due to Low Birth Rates
Elon Musk retweeted a statistic from a prediction market platform stating that the global population aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of children aged 5 and under for the first time, writing "humanity is dying." This assessment comes from the U.S. Census Bureau report "An Aging World: 2025," indicating that this crossover occurred between 2020 and 2025, marking the first time on record.
The Census Bureau estimates that by 2025, there will be approximately 852 million people aged 65 and older globally, accounting for 10.5% of the world population, which is about 8.13 billion. By 2060, the elderly population is expected to rise to about 2 billion, making up nearly one-fifth and approximately 55% of the net increase in the global population during that period. The world population is projected to grow from 8.13 billion to about 10.23 billion during the same time frame.
Changes in fertility rates are occurring more rapidly than expected a decade ago. In 2023, over 71% of the global population lives in countries where the total fertility rate is at or below the replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), compared to 45% in 2013. Both China and India have fallen below the replacement level, with Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam also crossing this line after 2013. In 2023, China's fertility rate dropped to about 1.06.
Longevity and low birth rates are both contributing factors. The Census Bureau attributes this crossover to declining mortality rates allowing more people to live to old age, coupled with persistently low birth rates preventing younger cohorts from replenishing the population. By 2025, Japan's population aged 65 and older is expected to account for about 29.7%, making it one of the oldest economies; the U.S. will have an elderly population share of about 18.9%, ranking around 48th globally, but due to faster aging in other countries, it may drop to around 110th by 2060. Africa's elderly population is expected to grow from about 60 million to 249 million, surpassing Europe's approximately 214 million by then.
Musk has repeatedly referred to low birth rates as a civilization-level risk, claiming it poses a greater danger than climate issues, and has emphasized that global fertility is approaching or falling below the replacement line. The United Nations' medium variant in the World Population Prospects still predicts that the global population will peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, which is not the same as an "immediate extinction" scenario; the crossover pertains to age structure, not an immediate decline in total population.
In market mechanisms, buyers are pension funds, healthcare, and long-term care financing, while sellers are the future working-age population. Funding is shifting from child education and housing to elderly healthcare and caregiving labor. Beneficiaries include longevity-related pharmaceuticals, caregiving robots, and economies capable of importing working-age immigrants; those under pressure include pay-as-you-go pension systems, real estate anchored by young consumers, and the expansion model of higher education. This is driven by demographic structure, not a single-day trading event.
Additionally, the United Nations has another estimate that by around 2063, the population aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children under 15; the crossover of those aged 80 and older exceeding those under 5 will occur even later. The Census Bureau's comparison this time is between those aged 65+ and those aged 5 and under, which is a narrower threshold, thus the crossover appears earlier.
Source: Public Information
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Musk has framed the population issue as a matter of civilization survival, not just from this Census flash report. In 2022, he wrote that "the collapse of birth rates is the greatest danger facing civilization," and has reiterated this point following events like Singapore's fertility rate dropping to 0.87 and global fertility nearing 2.1. He himself follows a path of having multiple children while describing the Optimus humanoid robot as a labor substitute. Historical parallels include the decline in birth rates during the late Roman period, which relied on foreign recruitment for legions, and Japan's post-population peak push for robots, female labor participation, and limited immigration—warnings have been issued early, but policy tools have been slow to respond.
Capital is already re-pricing age structures. Pension funds are forced to extend durations and increase allocations to healthcare and caregiving real estate; developers in East Asia are transforming essential housing into age-friendly designs; insurance companies are separating longevity risks from mortality tables to sell them individually. Musk's counter-bet within this system is that fewer people will lead to using robots to supplement labor hours, while the narrative of Mars supports the psychological account of "civilization needing to expand." The motivations are dual—public discussions call for more children, while industry accounts require less reliance on young labor.
Comparatively, South Korea's fertility rate of about 0.8 remains difficult to reverse, while Italy and Germany maintain their labor force through immigration, and China’s three-child policy is documented but fails to stop a fertility rate around 1. The world is transitioning from "population dividend expansion" to "dependency ratio control." Africa remains young, but the baseline for growth is the elderly cohort, not automatically transforming into a consumer market like Europe and America.
Structural judgments belong to the reconstruction of the industrial chain. The mechanism is that when the population aged 65 and older exceeds those aged 5 and under, the cash flow center of society shifts from "investing in children for twenty years" to "paying for the elderly for twenty years." The chains for schools, toys, and first-time home purchases narrow, while those for caregiving, chronic disease medications, age-friendly renovations, and automation widen. The total population may still rise above 10 billion, but the new additions will primarily be those needing care. Whoever first shifts labor output from young populations to machines and longer working lives will be able to maintain tax rates and debt rollover amid worsening dependency ratios.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Population can continue to grow, but the labor force is aging first.
The crossover is not the end of the world, but a change in the accounting of dependency ratios.
Fewer births mean fewer children, while those on pay-as-you-go systems are the first to die.