Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer Says New Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle May Have Started Based on Power Law Model
Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer stated that a new four-year cycle Bitcoin bull market may have begun based on the power law model.
He noted that there seems to be no clear narrative currently, but bull markets rarely start with a narrative. Price behavior has realigned with the long-term power law trend, and the market has begun to rise after the typical duration of bear markets has ended.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo responded that if one is looking for a bottom, searching for a bullish narrative will never yield results; true bottoms often form during negative events, not when optimistic stories emerge.
Woo cited historical cases: in 2026, concerns from Strategy Treasury regarding quantum computing risks; the 2022 FTX collapse; the BCH fork and hash war in 2018; and the Mt. Gox bankruptcy in 2014, all formed bottoms during narrative voids.
Related observations show that Bitcoin has rebounded after about a year of support around $60,000, with the 52-week Z-score of the BTC to gold price ratio turning positive, a signal that has historically marked cycle lows.
Institutional funds may gradually flow into Bitcoin spot and related products due to cycle and power law signals, while retail investors are still waiting for a clear narrative confirmation. After event-driven bottoms, the market enters a narrative-free accumulation phase, benefiting early allocations and long-term holders, while high-cost leveraged long or short positions come under pressure.
Net inflow data from exchanges and changes in the cost basis of long-term holders may further indicate a shift of funds from trading positions to accumulation holdings.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer has been tracking Bitcoin cycles and its comparison to gold for a long time. He previously pointed out that the "rest year" after the four-year cycle may fall in 2026, providing a support range of $65,000 to $75,000. He has also given a target of around $300,000 by 2029 based on power law and S-curve models. His historical judgments have accurately captured the timing of cycle tops and conservatively estimated the duration of bull markets.
In terms of capital flow, the institution Timmer is part of continues to allocate Bitcoin through spot ETFs and institutional channels, shifting resources from traditional macro assets to digital assets. The motivation is to incorporate Bitcoin into a long-term allocation framework similar to gold, rather than for short-term trading. Recently, after the reinforcement of power law signals, expectations for fund inflows into related products have risen, while on-chain analysis emphasizes the confirming role of historical negative events on bottoms, prompting some funds to position themselves early during the narrative void.
Similar cases include early accumulation when institutions began discussing Bitcoin as digital gold in 2019, and the price rise at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 without a clear narrative. Currently, we are in the early expansion phase after the end of the four-year cycle, where institutional-led allocation behavior is gradually replacing retail narrative-driven actions, transitioning the industry from high-volatility trading to institutional holding.
This essentially represents a transfer of pricing power, where the mechanism involves cycle models and power law principles moving from marginal analytical tools into mainstream institutional frameworks. Funds are no longer entirely reliant on external events or policy narratives for pricing but are repricing based on long-term mathematical models and historical bottom signals, leading to pressure on traditional news-driven trading structures and giving more capital weight to long-term allocation logic.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
Bull markets start without narratives, while bear markets end with stories.
Bottoms are defined by events, while tops are defined by narratives.
When pricing power shifts from stories to models, early funds act ahead of consensus.