Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Chasing 100x Tokens is a Hot Potato
Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, stated during a fireside chat at Token2049 in Singapore that chasing the next 100x token has become a game of "irrational exuberance and hot potatoes." He believes that traders can recognize that a token has no value but still buy it due to the potential for a 100x increase, hoping to sell before it goes to zero.
He acknowledged that some people can accumulate wealth this way, but asset prices that rise will eventually fall. His exact words were: "People think they are buying something, but it actually has no value, yet they still buy; as long as it can reach 100x, they want to sell before it returns to zero. This shifts the focus from fundamentals to exit order."
Coplan noted that the growth of Polymarket's users indicates that some traders are looking for opportunities with more predictable odds, rather than the next hot token. He emphasized that the markets on the platform do not have exponential upside potential, yet traders with relevant information are still willing to participate, betting on event probabilities rather than token narratives.
According to DefiLlama, Polymarket's predicted trading volume over the past 7 days was approximately $1.21 billion, ranking second in the prediction market; Kalshi had about $2.3 billion during the same period, ranking first. The volume indicates that a migration has occurred, but pricing power still lies deeper with compliant sports and event contracts.
Risks have not disappeared with the narrative switch. A previous report from 10x Research pointed out that data-driven professional traders profit from information asymmetry and bid-ask spreads at the expense of retail investors chasing quick money. The prediction market caps the upside potential but does not cap the information gap.
Buyers are traders moving away from 100x tokens and into event contracts, while sellers are platforms providing hedging markets and professional counterparts. Funds are flowing from the secondary market of tokens to contracts priced from 0 to 1, with Polymarket and Kalshi extracting traffic based on transactions. Beneficiaries are traders with information advantages and platforms that obtain compliant licenses, while small-cap tokens that rely on narratives to maintain prices and states regulating sports contracts as gambling face pressure.
More than ten states in the U.S. have filed lawsuits against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both regarding sports event contracts. Federal swap determinations and state gambling licenses are in conflict, and an increase in trading volume does not equate to established access in all states.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Shayne Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020, initially creating on-chain odds for elections and public events. In 2022, the company settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and exited the U.S. market, and in 2024, its premises were searched by federal authorities. In 2025, the platform plans to return to the U.S. by acquiring a licensed derivatives entity, first obtaining compliant access and then turning election traffic into daily active users. Kalshi is taking a different route: first becoming a designated contract market and then turning sports outcomes into event contracts.
The capital path is to replace exit order with probability. The money in 100x tokens is stuck on who sells first to the next buyer, while the money in the prediction market is stuck on contract settlement. Coplan interprets user growth as a migration of odds, actually competing for weekly transactions where Kalshi is already leading: $1.21 billion versus $2.3 billion. Professional funds do not buy "100x"; they buy the mispriced spreads from retail investors mispricing public information, which is what 10x Research pointed out.
A parallel can be drawn to the feedback loop Robert Shiller wrote about in "Irrational Exuberance" in 2000, and in the 2024 election season, Kalshi and Polymarket are turning polls into tradable contracts. The industry position is in a regulatory battle after expansion: products already have volume, but access is still in court. The Illinois federal court tends to view sports contracts as swaps, while the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals does not recognize federal priority in related cases in Ohio and Tennessee, indicating a split that is itself the next stage.
This is a transfer of pricing power. The mechanism is that token prices have no upper limit, so narratives can self-reinforce; event contract prices are capped between 0 and 1, and excess returns can only come from information timing and bid-ask spreads. State governments want to reclaim it for gambling tax bases, while the federal derivatives framework wants to keep it in the swap market. Whoever obtains settlement rights will gain traffic, not just those who shout out 100x first.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Prices without limits sell exit order.
After capping odds, profits are left with information gaps.
The market with traffic first still has access in court.