Polymarket Announces Change to TWAP Settlement for Crypto Markets Starting August 7, UTC
Polymarket Changes to TWAP Settlement for Crypto Markets
Polymarket announced that starting August 7, UTC, the settlement for its crypto up/down markets will change from a single point price snapshot to a time-weighted average price (TWAP).
The 5-minute market will use a 30-second TWAP, while the 15-minute and 4-hour markets will use a 60-second TWAP, aimed at reducing manipulation risks during low liquidity periods.
The platform will inject $1 million in liquidity rewards into relevant markets in August, and the Chainlink mainnet TWAP data stream and real-time service are set to launch on August 4.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Polymarket has previously faced manipulation concerns during low liquidity windows due to single snapshot settlements and is under ongoing regulatory scrutiny; this adjustment directly addresses the settlement loophole.
The $1 million reward is intended as a market-making incentive during the transition period, while integrating Chainlink data streams will deeply bind the oracle layer with the prediction market settlement.
Similar to traditional futures markets transitioning from point pricing to TWAP or VWAP to combat manipulation, the current prediction market is evolving from experimental contracts to institutional-grade integrity infrastructure.
This is essentially a mechanism upgrade driven by regulatory changes; after standardizing settlement rules, manipulation costs will rise, making funds more willing to enter short-cycle directional crypto markets.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Settlement rules determine manipulation costs
Liquidity rewards act as a lubricant during the transition period
Oracle accuracy determines the market trust ceiling