Rohit Mittal says about half of acquisitions fall through because founders start optimizing the wrong things halfway through
Helium Ventures founder Rohit Mittal posted on X on October 27, 2026, saying he believes about 50% of acquisitions fail to close because founders start optimizing the wrong things halfway through the process.
Mittal wrote that founders start nickel-and-diming and dragging out the deal during the process, and then “life happens.” The buyer may change its mind, the market may change, the runway may run out, or investors may become difficult to work with. Momentum disappears, and the deal falls apart. He pointed out that acquisitions are different from fundraising, and founders experiencing an acquisition for the first time often do not realize how many steps it takes to close a deal.
Mittal said every acquisition hangs by a thread and has come close to failing multiple times, with no guarantee. Once he decides to sell, he always advises completing the deal as quickly as possible. In multiple earlier posts, Mittal has repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty in acquisition processes, including cases in which a PE buyer backed out after signing an LOI, a CEO change caused a deal to collapse, and the buyer changed its mind after due diligence was completed.
Original sources:
Title: I believe about 50% of acquisitions fall through because founders start optimizing for the wrong things halfway through. Publisher: Rohit Mittal (@rohitdotmittal) Publication date: 2026-10-27 URL: https://x.com/rohitdotmittal/status/2115222202203111570 Source type: original post Verification status: full text read in this instance (2026-10-27) Supporting content: Mittal’s statement that about 50% of acquisitions fall through because founders start optimizing the wrong things halfway through, as well as his explanation of the nickel-and-diming process, momentum disappearing, the difference from fundraising, and his advice to close the deal as quickly as possible.
Title: PE backs out of acquisition deals after signing LOIs. Publisher: Rohit Mittal (@rohitdotmittal) Publication date: 2026-10-22 URL: https://x.com/rohitdotmittal/status/2113384301521948703 Source type: original post Verification status: full text read in this instance (2026-10-27) Supporting content: Mittal said PE backing out of deals after signing LOIs is more common than expected, and that after signing an LOI, the best-case scenario is a 50-50 probability.
ABAB AI Insight
Mittal’s remarks are based on his experience as the founder of Helium Ventures and his earlier sale of Stilt. On X, he has repeatedly described specific acquisition failures, including boards changing their minds at the last minute, CEO changes causing deals to collapse, and buyers backing out after due diligence was completed. These posts attribute failure to internal buyer decision changes, market conditions, and founders’ runway constraints rather than to a single factor.
On the capital path, Mittal distinguishes acquisitions from fundraising: in fundraising, signing a term sheet usually means a high probability of closing, while in acquisitions, even after an LOI is signed, the PE buyer may still back out. He advises that once a decision to sell is made, the deal should be completed as quickly as possible to reduce the time window for the buyer to change its mind or for runway to run out. Helium Ventures’ business model is to acquire early-stage VC-backed companies and operate entirely with cash, and its public posts emphasize speed and certainty over the ideal price.
Compared with the common view that acquisition failures are mainly due to valuation negotiations or due diligence issues, Mittal treats mid-process nickel-and-diming and delay as the key triggers for momentum loss. He also says that every deal has come close to failing multiple times, stressing that there is no guarantee before closing. This framework places founder behavior alongside external variables such as buyer decisions, the market, and investors.
The specific judgment is that by linking an approximately 50% failure rate to founders optimizing the wrong things halfway through, Mittal reframes the probability of closing an acquisition as a process that depends heavily on speed and avoiding delay. When the same speaker mentions in multiple posts both a 50-50 probability after an LOI, deals collapsing due to CEO changes, and the recommendation to close quickly, the discussion shifts from whether an offer is obtained to how to preserve momentum after the offer until funds are received; his judgment is based on personal observation and cases rather than public industry-wide statistics. A follow-up observation point is whether his Helium Ventures completes more early-stage company acquisitions under this speed principle, and the distribution of time from offer to closing in public cases.
ABAB News · Cognitive laws
Acquisitions are positioned as a process different from fundraising, with a high probability of withdrawal still existing after an LOI is signed.
Nickel-and-diming and delay in the middle of the process are described as triggers that cause momentum to disappear and the deal to fail.
Once the decision to sell is made, it is advised to close as quickly as possible to reduce the time window for external variables to intervene.