Axios reports KPMG survey of large U.S. company CEOs shows most expect AI to drive hiring rather than layoffs
Axios reports KPMG's survey of CEOs from large U.S. companies indicates that most respondents expect AI to drive hiring rather than layoffs.
The survey covered 100 CEOs of companies with annual revenues exceeding $500 million, revealing that 55% anticipate a direct increase in hiring due to AI by 2026, 36% expect no change, and only 9% plan to reduce staff due to AI investments.
KPMG CEO Tim Walsh stated that CEOs are optimistic about AI improving business in the next five to ten years, but in the short term, most companies have not yet seen a return on deployment and find it difficult to confirm ROI.
About 90% of CEOs are concerned about AI-driven malware and phishing attacks, and nearly 60% worry about the risks of quantum computing to encrypted data.
The survey was conducted from January 26 to February 17, reflecting large companies' judgments on the short-term employment impact of AI.
Market mechanism: Buyers are companies seeking talent to enhance productivity and new business through AI, while sellers are workers in the labor market with AI-related skills; the event is driven by capital expenditure shifting towards AI, with funds moving from traditional roles to AI-enhanced and new positions, benefiting expanding companies and skill-matched workers, while putting pressure on companies that have not realized short-term returns and are planning cautiously.
Source: Public information
ABAB AI Insight
KPMG regularly releases CEO outlook surveys, and this pulse survey focuses on the short-term impact of AI on the workforce. Historically, similar surveys during periods of technological change often show companies initially increasing investment before adjusting their workforce. The CEOs' optimistic statements about long-term potential but short-term lag in returns are similar to past digital investment cycles.
In terms of capital allocation, companies are directing capital budgets towards AI initiatives (some allocating 5% to 30% of expenditures), while planning to address gaps through hiring new talent and upskilling existing employees. Funds are shifting from current operations to AI-related talent and technology deployment, motivated by the competition for tech talent and embedding systems rather than simple replacement.
In comparison, similar to the early internet or automation waves where companies expanded first and optimized later, we are currently in a phase of accelerated AI investment but with mixed employment signals, resembling the phenomenon of strong capital expenditure with cautious hiring in discussions of "jobless prosperity."
Structurally, this represents an intersection of technological replacement and capital concentration: AI deployment drives capital towards productivity tools, but the survey shows most CEOs choose to hire more rather than implement large-scale layoffs. The mechanism is that short-term productivity gains are limited, and companies prioritize capturing long-term returns through talent acquisition and skill upgrades rather than immediate cost savings through layoffs.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
When short-term returns lag, companies first increase investment and then adjust personnel.
The expectation that technology investments create jobs often exceeds actual replacements.
Capital expenditure leads, while employment adjustments lag behind productivity validation.