Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao: Poor Market This Year but RWA Exceeds Expectations
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao recorded a podcast "Meanders" in Thimphu, Bhutan, discussing pressure resistance and industry misjudgments. He stated that he usually does not set goals but strives to do his best; although the cryptocurrency market is poor this year and company performance may decline, he believes he has not been lazy and made no major mistakes.
His approach to handling difficulties is summarized in one sentence: no matter how hard it is, just do your best and wait after finishing. He reiterated the simulation theory, comparing the world to a game—simulation does not mean unimportance; after giving your all in the game, you can only lie down and wait for the results.
Regarding industry judgments, he believes that blockchain performance improvements are still slow; the slow upgrades of Bitcoin have resulted in stability, with both advantages and disadvantages. Some early concepts have been realized, while others have fallen short, and unexpected developments have emerged.
He pointed out two areas of delayed recognition: a year and a half ago, he was still skeptical about whether physical assets could be effectively tokenized; now he feels it is growing rapidly; five years ago, he did not fully understand how long stablecoins could last, but now he acknowledges that stablecoins have their own uses. Both are categorized as "previously unconsidered."
At the same time, he discussed the ongoing cycles, missed judgments on memes and NFTs, and that AI agent payments will take a crypto path during a new book event in Hong Kong and a community Q&A in Bali. This conversation in Thimphu did not provide new price or share figures, but the incremental change is framing the performance decline as an acceptable outcome and recognizing the direction of stablecoins and physical asset tokenization as something understood later.
In terms of market mechanisms, sellers have retreated from the front lines of exchanges to founders focused on investment and public narratives, while buyers are practitioners seeking explanations for cycles. Event-driven analysis is a review after the market year and personal legal cycles. Funds will not relocate due to the phrase "lying down to win," but will shift attention from public chain performance competition to stablecoins and on-chain assets that have incurred costs. Beneficiaries are stablecoin issuers who have established clearing networks and compliant on-chain channels; those under pressure are public chain teams that still treat throughput competition as the main narrative.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Changpeng Zhao's public persona has long framed pressure as "do your best and then wait." The simulation theory is not a new invention; he discussed the same concept years ago on an English podcast. This time, adding "performance may decline this year, but there are no major mistakes" indicates a shift from a high-speed expansion phase to a platform management phase for the exchange. Not setting goals equates to refusing to bind oneself with revenue commitments, and it also means reclaiming assessment authority from external expectations to internal narratives of effort.
The capital path has shifted from trading fees to investment portfolios and stablecoin clearing. The Binance system started with spot and futures trading, but what has truly developed into infrastructure is the stablecoin transfers pegged to the US dollar; tokenizing physical assets integrates traditional bonds and fund shares into the same clearing system. His admission that he did not understand stablecoins five years ago indicates that the largest cash flow products are not the smart contract visions in white papers, but rather payment and custody needs. The slow performance has been reframed as a stability premium for Bitcoin, acknowledging that throughput competition has given way to a stable settlement layer.
Analogies can be drawn to Bezos's distinction between "day one decisions and irreversible decisions," Naval's interpretation of luck as the residual after doing your best, and traditional banks that first mocked credit cards before surviving on clearing. The industry phase is characterized by the retreat of public chain narratives, with US dollar stablecoins and on-chain securities becoming the cost centers. Those who first acknowledge their misjudgments will be able to target their next investments on tracks that have already generated cash flow.
Structural judgments pertain to the transfer of pricing power. The mechanism is: price discovery has shifted from "which chain is faster" to "which dollar-backed instrument is more useful." The founder's list of misjudgments itself becomes a roadmap—stablecoins and physical asset tokenization no longer require faith, only fees. After doing your best, lying down to win means removing uncontrollable market conditions from personal responsibility and bringing controllable product directions into focus.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
Indeterminate goals reclaim assessment authority from expectations to effort
Misjudged varieties often first grow into cash flow
Stability gained from slow upgrades is itself a premium