Anti-Corruption Data Alliance Identifies 152 Polymarket Wallets Suspected of Betting on Unreleased U.S. Military Information
ACDC Identifies 152 Suspicious Polymarket Military Wallets
The Anti-Corruption Data Alliance has identified 152 Polymarket wallets suspected of betting on unreleased U.S. military information.
These wallets have collectively profited approximately $8 million in military and defense markets, with an average win rate of 97.2%. The study refers to these wallets as "Orca," characterized by making large long-tail bets in low-probability markets shortly after opening accounts, often disappearing after realizing profits.
Some suspicious bets appeared shortly before U.S. military actions, including a strike on Iranian facilities in June 2025, which were quickly followed by large traders and bots replicating amounts of $200,000 and $100,000, respectively.
Due to the public nature of on-chain transactions, these bets could leak sensitive military signals to foreign intelligence agencies. The study covers settled markets up to May 5, 2026, identifying 556 wallets with similar patterns, of which 152 are particularly prominent in the military sector.
The study has not proven insider trading, with other explanations including luck, but has prompted calls for enhanced identity verification and restrictions on prediction markets involving sensitive government information.
Mechanically, event-driven funds flow from ordinary participants to wallets with potential information advantages, with large follow-on trades amplifying signals and accelerating liquidity concentration in suspicious accounts, putting ordinary traders under pressure, and increasing the risk of prediction markets as public signal sources, making regulatory and compliance demands a direct beneficiary direction.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
The Anti-Corruption Data Alliance previously indicated through long-tail bet analysis that the long-tail win rate in military and defense markets is as high as 52%, far exceeding the platform-wide benchmark of 14%, and focused on a case where eight wallets profited a total of $1.8 million from actions related to Iran in 2025, demonstrating a systematic information advantage pattern.
In terms of capital pathways, suspicious wallets enter with small-scale precise long-tail bets, quickly attracting bots and whales to amplify positions, with profits realized through on-chain public settlements, after which accounts often disappear or transfer, shifting resources from public information games to monetizing potential non-public military signals.
Similar cases include U.S. Special Forces soldiers being prosecuted for profiting $400,000 by betting on Venezuelan-related events using confidential information on Polymarket, as well as Israeli accusations against military reserve personnel; currently, prediction markets are transitioning from political entertainment tools to sources of national security risk.
Structural judgment indicates regulatory changes: on-chain transparency transforms potential insider signals into observable public data, prompting law enforcement and policy to shift from post-facto accountability to preemptive restrictions on sensitive market types, with pricing power shifting from anonymous traders to regulatory and intelligence agencies.
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