US Military Launches Airstrikes on Iran Today, Conflict Escalates to Day 12
U.S. officials confirmed to Axios that the U.S. military began airstrikes within Iran today, marking the 12th consecutive day of military action.
U.S. Central Command stated that the airstrikes targeted Iranian missile and drone storage facilities as well as coastal radar positions, in response to a previous Iranian attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan that resulted in the deaths of 2 U.S. soldiers, 1 missing, and 4 injured.
Funds are flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets, with crude oil prices rising by 9% and gold prices surpassing $2450 per ounce. The military and energy sectors are benefiting, while technology and consumer stocks are under pressure due to rising geopolitical risk premiums.
Since the conflict erupted in June 2026, the U.S. military has conducted over 100 airstrikes within Iran, with Iran claiming to have destroyed U.S. THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems and multiple drone bases.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Historical Behavior
The U.S.-Iran conflict in 2026 exhibits a "spiral escalation" characteristic. In June 2025, the Trump administration targeted Iranian nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Esfahan), and military actions resumed in June 2026 due to tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to 12 consecutive days of airstrikes from July 13 to 29. Compared to the retaliatory attacks by Iran after the killing of Soleimani in January 2020 (which did not result in U.S. casualties), the 2026 conflict has been more prolonged—resulting in a total of 15 U.S. military deaths and 550 injuries, while Iran has reported at least 35 deaths and 300 injuries. Historical behavior reflects the characteristics of a "limited war"—the U.S. does not seek regime change, but aims to weaken Iran's military capabilities.
Capital Pathway
The capital impact of military conflict is clear: the daily cost of U.S. airstrikes is approximately $50 million (ammunition $30 million + fuel $10 million + personnel $10 million), totaling $600 million over 12 days. Iran incurs daily losses of about $100 million (military facilities + oil export disruptions), totaling $1.2 billion over 12 days. Funds are shifting from "domestic fiscal expenditure" to "military operations," with a defense budget of $886 billion for FY 2026, of which 15% ($130 billion) is allocated for Middle East deployments, with an additional $20 billion added after the conflict escalated. In the oil market, the daily transport of 20 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz (accounting for 20% of global supply) is threatened, with oil prices rising from $75 per barrel to $85 per barrel; if the conflict continues until August, prices are expected to reach $100 per barrel.
Comparison + Industry Position
Similar cases include the 2003 Iraq War—where the first month of airstrikes cost $10 billion, and oil prices rose from $25 per barrel to $35 per barrel. In the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the first month of military spending was $50 billion, with oil prices rising from $75 per barrel to $120 per barrel. The current U.S.-Iran conflict is in a "limited war" phase—compared to the Iraq War (full invasion) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (total war), the scale of the U.S.-Iran conflict is smaller (daily average of $50 million vs. $10 billion), but the geopolitical risks are higher (Strait of Hormuz vs. Black Sea). The industry position is in a "geopolitical risk premium repricing phase"—in July 2026, the oil risk premium was $10 per barrel (compared to $5 in 2025), and if the conflict escalates to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the premium could rise to $25 per barrel.
Structural Judgment
Essentially, this is a reconstruction of energy pricing weight due to regulatory changes. The U.S. military actions against Iran are fundamentally "coercive diplomacy"—using military strikes to force Iran back to the negotiating table, rather than seeking "regime change." This explains why airstrikes have continued for 12 days without a ground invasion—the cost-benefit ratio: airstrikes cost $50 million per day, while a ground invasion would cost $1 billion per day. When military actions become a "negotiation chip," energy pricing shifts from "supply-demand fundamentals" to "geopolitical risk premiums." This has driven the "weaponization of energy"—Iran threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz (20 million barrels of oil daily), while the U.S. deploys the Fifth Fleet (Bahrain) for escort, creating a "oil-military" linkage. As the conflict continues, the global oil supply chain shifts from "efficiency-first" (lowest cost transport) to "security-first" (rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing costs by 30%), promoting the narrative of "de-globalization."
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
Limited war is an extension of coercive diplomacy.
Geopolitical risk premiums are an invisible tax on energy pricing.
The cost-benefit of military actions determines the form of war.