Chun: The Crypto Bear Market Has Ended
Crypto investor Chun publicly asserts that the bear market has ended, but this view lacks supporting price, on-chain data, or trading structure, and is considered a directional market statement.
Bitcoin surged past $68,000 on August 19, with a 24-hour increase of about 6%; shares of Strategy, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, and Coinbase rose approximately 13%, 13%, and 11%, respectively, indicating a strong rebound in crypto-related equity assets.
However, Bitcoin previously fell from a high of over $125,000 in October 2025 to around $64,000, with a maximum decline of nearly 50%; the total market capitalization of crypto assets decreased by 12.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, down 52% from its peak, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline.
The market still lacks confirmed signals of a reversal in spot demand. Bitcoin previously failed to maintain above $65,000, with weak on-chain active buyer demand; the $62,000 to $63,000 range is a key support area, and if it fails, the market may test around $54,300. Sustaining above $65,500 and near the 50-day moving average is necessary to open up the direction towards $70,000.
De-leveraging in derivatives has not ended: approximately $200 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a decrease in open contracts while prices remained relatively stable, indicating a trend reversal closer to short covering rather than new long funds dominating.
Mechanically, short-term buyers are mainly covering shorts, bottom-fishing, and risk-seeking funds betting on regulatory improvements, while sellers include trapped positions from earlier and leveraged participants selling to reduce risk exposure. The SEC's proposed crypto asset financing rules provide a catalyst, but cannot replace sustained net inflows in the spot market; if the rebound is led by short covering, the lack of new buying after shorts are cleared will pressure prices. A recovery in spot ETF funds, stablecoin exchange balances, and active on-chain addresses would provide more trend confirmation.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Bitcoin has historically seen sharp rebounds after deep declines, but a rebound does not equate to a cycle reversal. During the 2022 bear market, BTC experienced several short-term rebounds around the Terra collapse, Three Arrows Capital liquidation, and FTX bankruptcy, ultimately falling to about $15,500 in November 2022; a true market turnaround requires the clearing of leverage, restoration of spot demand, and improvement in liquidity conditions to occur simultaneously.
Currently, there are signs of capital contraction: the top ten centralized exchanges saw spot trading volume drop to $1.95 trillion in Q2, a 27.9% quarter-on-quarter decline; the average daily trading volume fell to $93.1 billion, nearly 21% lower than its peak. Exchange stablecoin reserves are about $64 billion, down approximately $16 billion from the peak of about $80 billion at the end of 2025, indicating that liquidity in dollars available for immediate deployment into risk assets has not expanded.
The current situation can be compared to the crypto rebound in early 2023 and the recovery of risk assets after March 2020, but the distinction lies in the source of funds: the 2023 recovery gradually gained support from spot buying and a rise in risk appetite, while the 2020 recovery was underpinned by global monetary and fiscal easing as underlying liquidity. The market is currently transitioning from de-leveraging to repricing, and it has yet to demonstrate sufficient long-term capital to replace derivative shorts as marginal buyers.
Essentially, it is about capital concentration. In the later stages of the bear market, small to medium projects lacking cash reserves, relying on token financing and high leverage for market making, are the first to be forced to sell or exit; liquidity is concentrating towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and a few assets with regulatory and institutional access. The so-called end of the bear market must first manifest as capital willing to continuously allocate in higher-risk long-tail assets, rather than just a one-time high-volatility short covering in mainstream coins.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
Price rebounds are signals, sustained capital is the trend
Short covering creates price increases, spot buying creates bull markets
At the end of a bear market, leaders rise first, while long tails rise in the mid-bull market