Binance Founder CZ: Best Time to Buy Bitcoin is When It's Declared Dead
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated on October 23 that the phrase "Bitcoin is dead" has been repeated many times in the past, and those moments were precisely the best times to buy Bitcoin.
Tracking websites show that since 2010, Bitcoin has been publicly declared "dead" about 478 times, with 93 times in 2017, 74 times in 2018, and about 24 times in 2026. These declarations often occur during significant price corrections or periods of concentrated negative news, after which prices have subsequently reached new highs.
CZ himself bought Bitcoin at an average price of about $600 in early 2014, selling his Shanghai apartment to invest about $900,000. After buying, the price fell to around $200 and remained there for several months, but he did not sell and continued to hold. This experience aligns with his current viewpoint.
In June 2022, November 2024, November 2025, and June 2026, CZ has repeatedly expressed similar positions, emphasizing buying during periods of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), rather than chasing prices at historical highs. Recently, when the narrative of "Bitcoin is dead" resurfaced, he reiterated this historical pattern.
CME data shows that in quarters where some "death" narratives were active, cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume set records, with a high proportion related to Bitcoin, and institutional hedging and trading activities did not stop due to negative headlines.
This viewpoint represents a typical sentiment-driven trading signal. Short-term traders sell or avoid during "death" headlines, putting pressure on prices; long-term holders and institutions increase their exposure during extreme pessimism. Funds flow from panic selling to low-price buying, and historical data shows that the probability of price rebounds after such nodes is high, benefiting contrarian positions while putting pressure on short-term funds that chase prices.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Changpeng Zhao bought Bitcoin at an average price of about $600 in 2014, after which the price fell to the $200 range and remained there for months; he chose to hold rather than exit. After founding Binance in 2017, the platform quickly became one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges globally. In 2023, he pleaded guilty to regulatory issues and served several months in prison, but continued to express market views through his personal account after his release, with his early contrarian buying experience becoming a core part of the public narrative.
In terms of capital flow, CZ directly converted personal assets (liquidating real estate) into Bitcoin holdings and increased his position as prices further declined. Binance's trading volume and user base allow his views to quickly reach retail investors, forming a funding guidance path of "founder endorsement + social media diffusion." He has not publicly recommended large-scale buying at highs but has repeatedly emphasized acting at peaks of negative sentiment, a strategy that aligns closely with his own path in 2014.
Similar cases include Warren Buffett's public statements about increasing quality asset holdings during market panic, and the numerous "death" declarations around the bottoms of Bitcoin's bear markets in 2018 and 2022, after which prices rebounded several times in subsequent cycles. The current market is in an extreme emotional phase within the cycle, with increasing divergence in behavior between long-term capital and short-term leveraged funds.
Essentially, this represents a transfer of pricing power. Extreme negative narratives temporarily hand short-term pricing power to panic sellers, causing prices to deviate from the valuation anchor of long-term holders, but this transfer is unsustainable. The mechanism lies in the asymmetry of information and time preferences: short-term funds are highly sensitive to headlines and quickly withdraw, while long-term funds interpret the same signals as a low-price allocation window, ultimately regaining pricing power through continued buying and pushing prices back to equilibrium.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
- Death headlines are buying signals; euphoric headlines are selling signals.
- Fear prices short-term; holding prices long-term.
- The number of repeated declarations equals the number of missed opportunities.