By 2025, solar energy will cover 75% of the world's new electricity demand alone, and solar plus wind will cover 99%
The energy think tank Ember stated in the "Global Electricity Review 2026" that by 2025, solar energy alone will cover 75% of the world's new electricity demand, while solar plus wind will cover 99%. The increase in clean power is 887 TWh, with an increase in electricity demand of 849 TWh, and fossil generation declining by 0.2%. This marks the fifth year in this century where fossil generation has not grown.
Solar generation increased by 636 TWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%, the largest absolute increase on record, and the fastest percentage growth in eight years. This increase is roughly equivalent to double the annual electricity consumption of the UK. Global solar generation reached 2778 TWh, surpassing wind generation for the first time. Since 2015, solar output has increased more than tenfold, roughly doubling every three years. New installations totaled 647 GW, an 11% year-on-year increase.
Structurally, renewable energy accounts for 34% of global electricity generation, while coal accounts for 33%. Ember states that this is the first time in modern history, and in about a century, that the share of renewable energy generation has surpassed coal. China contributed more than half of the solar increase, adding 336 TWh; the US added 85 TWh, and the EU added 60 TWh. Wind power was the second largest contributor, increasing by 205 TWh, an 8.2% increase. China's fossil generation decreased by 56 TWh, and India's decreased by 52 TWh, with the two countries still accounting for 42% of global fossil generation. This is the first time in this century that both China and India have seen a decline in fossil generation simultaneously.
Ember's Managing Director Aditya Lolla stated that we have indeed entered an era of clean growth. Peter H. Diamandis echoed this sentiment, stating that solar energy covers about three-quarters of the new electricity demand; clean power covers all demand growth, and fossil generation has not increased. The report did not mention that primary energy for transportation and heating has been replaced.
The demand side continues to rise. Global electricity consumption increased by 2.8%, with the new 849 TWh almost entirely consumed by clean power sources, which is why fossil generation has stagnated in absolute terms, not because demand has stopped. The EU and the US had a slight increase in fossil generation in the first three quarters of the year, which was offset by declines in China and India.
This is a supply replacement, not a disappearance of demand. What is being purchased are photovoltaic modules, inverters, and grid capacity, while the pressure is on the utilization rates of new coal and gas plants. Beneficiaries include Chinese manufacturing and installation chains that contributed more than half of the solar increase, as well as India's grid, which saw its first year-on-year decline in fossil generation; those under pressure are coal plants that rely on growth in electricity output to amortize costs. Clean electricity covers new demand, not existing supply. Coal still accounts for 33%.
Source: Public information
ABAB AI Insight
The cost curve for solar energy has been rewriting new installations since the 2010s. China has turned modules, wafers, and inverters into an export industry, contributing 336 TWh of solar increase in 2025, surpassing the combined contributions of the US and EU. Ember's tenfold growth and doubling every three years correspond to the factory learning curve, not the targets set at climate conferences. Coal power has not been dismantled; it is simply that the incremental growth has been taken away.
Money is shifting from fuel to equipment. Fossil generation is burning less coal and gas, while clean increments must first pay for components and grid integration. The 647 GW of new installations represent capital expenditure, while the 636 TWh is the electricity generated from that capital expenditure. The reductions of 56 and 52 TWh in fossil generation in China and India respectively mean that both countries are handing over new loads to solar and wind, while existing coal plants still account for 42% of global fossil generation. Utilization rates are declining before shutdowns.
This can be compared to how US shale gas took away coal generation increments in the 2010s, and how nuclear power consumed baseload through large projects in the 1970s. The difference is that solar's increments come from decentralized components, not a single power plant. The industry is in the first half of the replacement phase: new demand has been covered by clean power, while existing coal power remains the largest single fossil source.
The essence is a transfer of pricing power. The new price for a kilowatt-hour has shifted from fuel and carbon costs to component prices and grid queueing. The mechanism is that the marginal cost of solar energy is close to zero, allowing it to capture the entire demand growth segment, causing fossil units to lose the incremental market for "selling one more kilowatt-hour." The 34% versus 33% is merely a share crossover, not an indication that the system has detached from coal.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
When increments are taken away, the existing capacity is still generating electricity.
The doubling every three years is due to factories, not declarations.
Covering new demand does not equate to replacing the base load.