Crypto Analyst Ted: Altcoin Open Interest Surpasses Bitcoin for the First Time Since December 2024
Analyst Ted stated based on contract data that the open interest of altcoin perpetual contracts currently exceeds that of Bitcoin, marking the first time since December 2024, and reminded the market to recall the trend of altcoins after that crossover.
Open interest measures the scale of outstanding derivative contracts, accounting for both long and short positions, without directly indicating direction. Tracking by Coinalyze shows this crossover occurred while Bitcoin was still trading above approximately $80,000, with the market capitalization of altcoins outside the top ten surpassing about $200 billion, and an increase of over 10% since early September. ZEC's open interest recorded about $2.4 billion at the beginning of September, with approximately $34 million in short liquidations when the price broke above $1,000.
Ted previously mentioned the proximity of similar crossovers, linking December 2024 with March 2024, stating that during those two rounds, altcoins saw local peaks within about two weeks. After the December 2024 crossover, several mid-cap tokens experienced sharp declines, while Bitcoin remained relatively stable. The increase in open interest itself does not confirm a trend; it merely indicates that leverage is shifting from Bitcoin contracts to thinner varieties.
Mechanically, buyers are speculative accounts increasing positions on altcoin perpetuals, while sellers are exchanges providing high-leverage order books. The event is driven by relatively crowded altcoin positions compared to Bitcoin, with funds migrating from BTC contract margins to mid and small-cap contracts; the beneficiaries are platforms with rising trading volumes and funding rate income, while the pressured side consists of altcoin positions with poorer liquidity, making them easier to liquidate. If a rapid reversal occurs after the crossover, liquidations will first hit the thinner varieties.
Public data has not unified whether "altcoins" include Ethereum, nor has it provided the total amount of realized liquidations after this crossover.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Ted uses position structure, not spot market value. The altcoin OI surpassing Bitcoin means that the same dollar fluctuation will affect more leveraged contracts, while the altcoin order book is thinner than Bitcoin's. The memory of December 2024 is a local peak followed by a pullback, not a permanent switch to an altcoin season. He framed the phrase "remember what happened afterward" as a risk warning rather than a new price increase command.
The capital path involves the migration of margin across cryptocurrencies on perpetual exchanges: Bitcoin positions are relatively de-weighted, while mid and small-cap contracts are absorbing nominal exposure. The motivation is to use smaller nominal capital to seek higher elasticity. Resource mobilization relies on listing more thin perpetual varieties, shifting speculation from macro trading pairs to single-coin volatility.
Analogous instances include the local peaks following the OI crossovers in March and December 2024, as well as the significant slippage of altcoins compared to Bitcoin during the large-scale liquidations in October 2025. In terms of industry positioning, the derivatives market has transitioned from a "betting on Bitcoin macro" phase back into a "betting on altcoin elasticity" phase; the dominance in spot remains with Bitcoin, while leverage excitement is in altcoins.
The structural judgment pertains to the transfer of pricing power: pricing power temporarily shifts from the asset with the largest spot market value to a basket of contracts most sensitive to liquidation engines. The mechanism is that open interest only records crowding, not direction; once prices reverse, thinner varieties will first return leverage to the exchange's insurance fund, making the crossover a liquidation warning rather than a trend badge.
ABAB News · Cognitive Law
When open interest flips, the first measure is crowding, not direction.
Thinner varieties catch more leverage, and liquidations will come knocking first.
The memory of the last crossover is often more expensive than the slogan of this crossover.