Reuters survey: US economy expected to grow at an annualized 3.2% in the third quarter
According to a Reuters survey of economists, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter.
Growth is mainly expected to be driven by resilient consumer spending and artificial intelligence-related business investment, with those two factors seen offsetting the impact of higher oil prices caused by conflict in the Middle East. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is expected to grow at a rate of more than 3.0%, compared with 3.8% in the second quarter; business equipment spending is expected to post double-digit growth for a third consecutive quarter.
The trade deficit is expected to weigh on GDP for a fourth consecutive quarter, with economists estimating at least a 4-percentage-point drag, though AI-related investment may partly offset that impact. Inventories could make a positive contribution to growth. Official preliminary data are expected to be released by the Commerce Department on Thursday.
Original source:
Title: AI-related investment, consumers likely boosted US economic growth in third quarter Publisher: Reuters Publication date: 2026-10-29 URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ai-related-investment-consumers-likely-boosted-us-economic-growth-third-quarter-2026-10-29/ Source type: media report Verification status: Full text read for this item, and related forecasts such as CEPR and Atlanta Fed GDPNow cross-checked; verification date 2026-10-28 Supporting content: forecast of 3.2%, main drivers, and trade impact
ABAB AI Insight
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model as of October 28 projected third-quarter growth of about 3.3%. First Trust Advisors estimated 3.3% and said data center and semiconductor-related spending was growing rapidly, while other areas were relatively weak. CEPR economist Dean Baker said overall growth was decent, but the main factors were the AI-driven investment boom and consumption supported by rising stock-market wealth.
The survey was conducted before the September advance economic indicators were released, which showed a widening goods trade deficit tied to demand for AI capital goods and record imports. The official report may be revised due to data changes. Historical data show that initial estimates are often revised in later releases.
Consumer spending is supported by low layoffs and modest hiring, but wage growth sometimes lags behind inflation. Among investment growth, the AI-related portion stands out, while non-AI investment such as factory construction remains relatively sluggish. The forecast has not yet been officially confirmed, and the actual data will be released on October 29.
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Third-quarter growth forecasts are jointly supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment, while the trade deficit is the main drag.
Before the official data release, models and economists’ surveys view AI capital expenditure as a key positive factor.