Circle Claims 70% of Real-World Stablecoin Transactions are via USDC
Circle stated that stablecoins have entered the actual US dollar financial system, claiming that about 70% of real-world stablecoin transactions are conducted through USDC.
The company's Q2 report and conference call cited Visa data: by June 2026, USDC accounted for nearly 70% of stablecoin transaction volume, a record high compared to about 36% in the same period last year. The on-chain transaction volume for the quarter was approximately $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 151%; the circulating supply at the end of the period was about $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Reserve interest income was approximately $667.7 million, accounting for 95.2% of total revenue and reserve income of about $701.3 million, with transaction fees around $5.3 million. According to Coin Metrics' adjusted figures, USDC transfers from 2026 to August amounted to about $32 trillion. Circle Payments Network has 175 financial institution partners. The mainnet of its own chain, Arc, is scheduled to launch on September 16, with validators including BlackRock, Mastercard, and Visa.
The 70% figure is based on Visa's transaction volume and does not equate to reserve size or payment finality ratios. USDT's circulating supply remains larger, with different speeds and scenarios. Revenue still relies on treasury bond interest, and the explosion in transfers contributes almost no transaction fees. Alliance coins like Open USD attempt to distribute reserve earnings to participants, constituting competition to the issuer model.
The narrative of "entering the dollar system" follows regulatory and settlement access, with on-chain transfers and bank settlements remaining two separate accounts. Real-world payments increased by 84% year-on-year, which the company lists separately, needing to be distinguished from arbitrage and market-making flows.
In market mechanisms, buyers seek compliant dollar-pegged payments and institutional channels, while sellers are Circle, which holds reserves and issues USDC. The driving force is the release of share data, which is a narrative event. Funds are parked in short-term treasury bond portfolios, with transaction volumes idling on-chain. Beneficiaries are issuers who can write Visa's metrics as market share, while those under pressure are other stablecoins with high transaction volumes but narrow compliant channels, as well as Circle's valuation tied to the interest model.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Circle interprets Visa's June slice as "70% within the dollar system." Transaction volume does not equal market value: USDC transfers quickly, while USDT holds steady. The $14.8 trillion on-chain amount against $5.3 million in fees indicates that settlement is almost free; the company sells the interest on reserves. The 95% interest income during a rate-cutting cycle is Achilles' heel, which Open USD aims to dismantle. Arc lists Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock as validators, intending to integrate card networks with dollar-pegged settlements at the same level. The 175 payment network partners are wholesale, not retail wallets.
The capital path is a treasury bond portfolio plus issuance rights. Coinbase previously took large distribution shares, effectively distributing interest to the entry point. The motivation is to exchange compliant identities for default dollars at the payment table; the strategy is to ensure that the "real-world" metric excludes speculative coin transfers, highlighting payments. The $32 trillion adjusted volume coexists with the $14.8 trillion company metric, with different denominators for data vendors and issuers.
Comparable entities include PayPal dollar balances, money market funds, and Tether using offshore dollars for market-making. Circle operates under licensed, auditable, U.S. treasury bonds. The phase is shifting from crypto trading pairs to bank payment intermediaries, with the interest model yet to be replaced by transaction fees.
This represents a transfer of pricing power. The question is who becomes the central counterparty for on-chain dollars. The mechanism is: regulatory recognition plus card organization data shifts shares from market cap rankings to payment rankings. Whoever holds reserve licenses and settlement identifiers provides proof for stablecoin transactions. Interest remains profit, and payments remain the narrative.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
The coin that transfers the most does not necessarily earn the most money.
Payment share is written using card organization metrics, while market value is written using on-chain stock.
When interest counts as profit, rate cuts hurt issuers more than transaction volume.