Galaxy Lowers Probability of CLARITY Act Passage to 10%
Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) passing in 2026 to only 10%, down from 75% in May and 50% in June.
The main reasons for the downgrade include unresolved ethical rules, disagreements over stablecoin yield provisions, and a tight Senate schedule.
After the Senate reconvenes on September 14, there will be only about two to three weeks left to advance the bill, requiring 60 votes to overcome obstruction, with the upcoming midterm elections further compressing the timeline.
The bill aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., clarifying the definitions and regulatory responsibilities of securities and commodities.
Opposition from the banking sector and resistance from most Democrats continue to hinder progress, despite support from over 200 crypto companies.
This adjustment reflects an event-driven expectation correction, reducing market optimism regarding legislative passage this year; beneficiaries are participants relying on the existing regulatory gray area, while those under pressure are institutions and compliance projects seeking clear rules.
Source: Public Information
ABAB AI Insight
Since the CLARITY Act was passed by the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15-9 in May, it has undergone text merging with the Agriculture Committee and multiple rounds of negotiations, but consensus has not been reached on issues such as ethical provisions (restricting officials from profiting from digital assets) and stablecoin yields.
On the capital front, the crypto industry is pushing for legislation through lobbying and public appeals to lower compliance costs and attract institutional funds; Galaxy, as an industry research institution, continues to track probability changes, and its downgrade directly reflects the impact of the narrowing legislative window on market expectations.
Similar cases can be seen in early attempts at crypto regulation, such as the repeated delays of FIT21 or stablecoin legislation; the U.S. is currently at a critical stage where legislative efforts for crypto market structure are moving from committee advancement to full Senate voting, with the industry's position transitioning from a policy vacuum to a limited framework facing obstacles.
This essentially represents a regulatory change: the legislative timeline and political disagreements directly determine the speed of rule implementation, with the mechanism being the Senate's 60-vote threshold combined with the midterm election cycle, making complex technical bills prone to slipping into the next session due to a crowded agenda.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
The legislative window is scarcer than the bill's content.
Unresolved disagreements are time killers.
Complex bills are prone to failure before midterm elections.