Dragonfly Partner Haseeb: The Largest Bull Market in Digital Assets Has Started, Dragonfly is Allocating Around $4 Billion
Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi stated on The Rollup show that the largest bull market in digital assets has begun and shared his positioning logic.
He expressed extreme optimism towards perpetual contracts, asset tokenization, and prediction markets. Dragonfly is allocating around $4 billion by category, placing treasury products in the weakest defensive tier, and predicts that perpetual contracts will outperform tokenization in the coming year, even though the ranking may reverse in five years.
Haseeb mentioned that real-world assets account for about half of Hyperliquid's perpetual trading, and the competition is no longer with Coinbase, but with the Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq, thus expanding the addressable market by an order of magnitude. He also noted that Variational's pricing model and order book are running in parallel, while NEAR is working on cross-chain account abstraction.
In terms of prediction markets, he outlined the confrontation between Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as Kalshi's lawsuit against various states and its path to bring federal priority to the Supreme Court. State attorneys general are collectively suing prediction markets, and advertising has entered a blitz phase; discussions have also emerged regarding Kalshi's wash trading being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
On the privacy front, he referred to Zcash as a resistant response to the compliance of Bitcoin ETFs and disclosed his personal investment in a Zcash wallet, with the logic being to make money first and then hide it in the privacy layer.
In market mechanisms, funds are shifting from a single crypto-native token testing ground to traditional asset on-chain trading. Buyers are institutions and retail looking for leverage, compliant entry, and event odds; sellers are small to medium protocols that cannot provide Nasdaq-level experiences and legal firepower. Event-driven factors include the surge in RWA transaction share, conflicts in state laws for prediction markets, and the privacy rebound after ETFs push Bitcoin into a transparent track. Beneficiaries are perpetual platforms that first streamline user experiences and capture traditional asset transactions, while those under pressure are products with weak defensibility that can only rely on treasury narratives to attract funds.
It was publicly described that perpetual contracts still only account for about 1% of the entire derivatives market, serving as a benchmark for its bullish potential.
Source: Public Information
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Haseeb transitioned from professional poker to crypto venture capital, with Dragonfly long-term betting on infrastructure, stablecoins, and application layers, while still holding Zcash at the cycle's low point. He has publicly predicted that the Clarity Act will pass in 2026 but the industry will regret it, that prediction markets will explode with 90% of speculative positions closing by year-end, and he has led a $50 million round for Variational's pricing derivatives. His personal and fund positions appearing in the Zcash ecosystem indicate he views privacy as a hedge layer post-ETF, rather than a thematic rotation slogan.
The capital path is to slice institutional LP's long-term funds into three parts: perpetual, tokenization, and prediction markets, with short-term density given to perpetuals, mid-term balance sheets to RWAs, and legal battle budgets to Kalshi-style federal priority lawsuits. The goal is to establish cash flow and user habits first, then allow tokenization to reverse surpass in a five-year scale, which is a typical "first occupy the trading layer, then the asset layer" strategy. The personal investment in Zcash wallets hides exit liquidity in anti-censorship tracks.
Benchmarking against early CME's acquisition of retail commodity futures and ICE's merger with the New York Stock Exchange for centralized clearing rights, as well as the legal battles of DraftKings with state sports betting laws. Hyperliquid has shifted its competitors from crypto exchanges to Nasdaq, acknowledging that crypto is merely a cold start, with the real market in traditional derivatives. The industry phase has shifted from public chain expansion narratives to a struggle for control over trading infrastructure.
Structural changes pertain to the transfer of pricing power. Perpetual contracts move price discovery from spot exchanges and ETFs to on-chain leveraged trading, with RWA transactions exceeding half indicating that the underlying assets are no longer self-generated from the crypto space; prediction markets turn events themselves into tradable assets and force the Supreme Court to define federal boundaries. The mechanism is that whoever first owns order flow, compliance licenses, and litigation endurance will set prices for the remaining assets, while treasury and pure public chain narratives can only serve this trading layer.
ABAB News · Cognitive Laws
The bull market first gives to the trading layer, then to the asset layer
1% market share is often the largest option
Compliance exposes assets, and privacy will be re-priced