JackYi: Spot Outperforms Leverage Amid Rate Hike Expectations
JackYi stated that after the recent rise in interest rate hike expectations, market trends have diverged: if rates are increased, Bitcoin may briefly drop below $76,000 before rebounding; if not, it will continue to rise. He advocates for spot trading without leverage. During a discussion at a business school in Shenzhen, he outlined a three-year outlook: Bitcoin and Ethereum spot prices could increase about fourfold, while trading could surge tenfold; trading infrastructure is expected to grow a hundredfold, as the core demand for blockchain is transactions; and Zhao Changpeng's concept of on-chain IPOs aims to move stocks and issuances onto the blockchain, phasing out traditional white paper tokens.
The public interest rate market has raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike from September 15 to 16 to about 87%, up from approximately 72% the previous day. The current target range for federal funds is 3.50% to 3.75%, and if implemented, it would be the first rate hike in nearly three years. The current price of Bitcoin is around $77,000. Inflation and employment data are expected to fluctuate probabilities within a week. The anticipation of a rate hike boosts the attractiveness of the dollar and government bonds, compressing the risk budget for high-volatility assets.
The fourfold and tenfold figures are for roadshow purposes, not pricing models. Trading infrastructure refers to matching, custody, and clearing; on-chain IPOs aim to place equity registration onto a settlement network. Spot trading is preferred over leverage, as it removes the gap risk from the interest rate decision.
The $76,000 mark is written as a short-term step in the rate hike scenario. Whether this step exists depends on the liquidity during the decision week, not on business school slides.
The market mechanism is that interest rate expectations affect risk assets. Buyers aim to hold spot positions on a no-rate-hike path; sellers are trading on a rate-hike path by reducing leverage. Funds are moving based on futures probabilities, with spot following volatility. The beneficiaries are those who can survive the decision week with spot holdings; the pressured are those who opened leveraged positions near $76,000. The event-driven factor is personal judgment combined with the spike in rate hike probabilities, not halving or new ETF approvals.
Expectations split prices into two paths. Leverage shortens both paths.
Source: Public Information
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JackYi has established a trading discipline based on a macro binary approach: wait for a drop below the rate hike threshold, and if not, the trend continues, with the common point being the removal of leverage. The 87% probability of a rate hike turns "possible" into a near-term event, and $76,000 is his psychological stop-loss level, not an exact strike price implied by options. The three-year fourfold increase is a rehash of the bull market narrative post-halving, while a tenfold increase requires new incremental buyers. The hundredfold trading infrastructure narrative positions the shovel as scarcer than gold coins, a claim made in every cycle, with survival depending on costs and licenses. On-chain IPOs are presented as an alternative to the token cycle narrative for compliant issuances in 2026.
The capital path is that spot ETFs and over-the-counter inventories are sensitive to interest rates. A rate hike raises cash yields, potentially pausing ETF subscriptions; if rates are not raised, the narrative returns to risk assets. Infrastructure companies benefit from trading volume, not from price direction. If equity on-chain becomes a reality, the fee payers will shift from retail token holders to brokerages and registration companies. The "farewell" to white paper tokens is a wish; the secondary market will not automatically close off old assets.
Analogies can be drawn to the crypto deleveraging during the 2018 rate hike cycle and the multiples table before each halving. The industry phase is about controlling leverage. Those who can survive the decision week with spot positions will be qualified to discuss three-year multiples. The hundredfold story is sold to risk capital needing new asset classes, while the fourfold story is aimed at existing spot holders.
Structural changes indicate a shift in pricing power between interest rates and narratives. The mechanism is that when federal funds futures jump by several percentage points in a single day, short-term pricing power in crypto shifts to macro factors, while long-term pricing power remains tied to halving and ETF structures. Leverage turns the macro window into a liquidation window. Spot trading transforms the window into a retracement that can be negotiated.
ABAB News · Law of Cognition
When a path splits into two, leverage shortens both.
Multiples are written on slides, while steps are determined by liquidity during the decision week.
Trading infrastructure profits without needing to predict the next rate hike.